The Pellucid Perspective - September 2021 - 15

Jan Feb Mar
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
1%
Golf Playable Hours 2021 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
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Apr
9%
3%
I
I
I
I
I
-2%
I
-1%
-5%
-9%
-17%
I
I
I
I
I
3%
I I I I I I
-1%
-19%
Source: Pellucid
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above graphic shows the " down " weather result for August which will likely put a dent in demand, along with the elevated
post-COVID demand comps, when reported later this month. The August result dragged the YtD figure into negative territory
but it still remains within our " neutral results " range of +-2%. If you want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for our
'21 year-end " call " for weather at the national level you can get that by subscribing to our Geographic Weather Impact tracking.
For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific weather forecast service for the next 60 days by subscribing to
Cognilogic Foresight.
Pellucid Publications Membership
Geographical Weather Impact
Cognilogic
Jan Feb Mar
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
(5.0)I I I I I I I I I I I I I
(2.0)
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Utilization Rate 2021 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
39.3
May
Jun Jul
27.0
25.4
9.9
8.3
1.3
9.7
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (59%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
Utilization gains finally came to an end with the demand decline exceeding the GPH decline for the month. As mentioned
previously, that ends a glorious streak of monthly Utilization gains and we'll look to start a new streak but the prelims for August
suggest that we're going to get a " down & down " month on demand and GPH so it may turn out to simply be the magnitude of
one vs. the other. Jim's last month prediction for July was that we'd see a fractional gain in Utilization for the month so he missed
that one (but only by a couple points). For August, he's going to go with a Utilization gain for the month betting that the demand
decline will be <8% (our GMRC Charter Members have already seen the roll-up of the portfolio for August including their numbers;
you could be in-the-know too by inquiring here).
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
15
May
Jun Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
The Pellucid Perspective - September 2021

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