The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021 - 12

INDUSTRY
SCORECARD
Sep Utilization shows expected decline (5 pts),
Year-to-Date figure still healthy at 60%+!
Industry Key Performance Indicators at-a-glance
Rounds by Facility Type Sep 2021
All Fac.
Types
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
8.4%
Public
Access
9.8%
Private
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3.3%
-8.0%
-7.7%
-8.1%
Source: Golf Datatech
n Curr Month
n Curr YtD
Looking at demand for September as reported by Golf Datatech,
we saw a(n expected) 3rd consecutive decline as reported rounds
demand registered -8% vs. Year Ago (YA), trailing a healthy '20
baseline. That continued the erosion of our Year-to-Date (YtD)
gain to +8% with 9 months in the books. For the YtD period, we
see a reversal of the '20 pattern with gains driven by the Public
sector at +10% (part of that is due to the fact that in '20 Private
didn't dip as much so they're playing against a higher base). Despite
the dip vs. '20, demand results are holding up better than
we had expected. That leads us to the monthly question of " How
much of the September decline was due to weather vs. changes in
golfer engagement? " For the answer to that question, we'll need
to look at the month via Pellucid's unique view of Utilization.
n %Utilization
n Pt. Chng vs. FY '20
Utilization & Point Change Sep 2021
For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather.
The comparative
benchmark is the Year End (YE) '20 value of 59%.
For those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking,
the underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical
world where rounds follow weather, a 5% increase in Available
Rounds would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine
the weather-neutral performance of the average facility and
how it's changing during the year vs. the benchmark.
The bad news in our September weather impact is that the
decline in demand was against basically flat weather producing
a Utilization of 54%, down 5 points vs. YA. That continues the
recent pattern of Utilization drops due to declines to the '20
elevated rounds against weather that is indifferent to pandemics
and related closures and restrictions. On the positive side, YtD
Utilization remains significantly elevated at + 5 pts and 64% in
the absolute, a figure we couldn't have imagined in '19.
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Curr.
Month
YtD
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Source: Golf Datatech and Pellucid
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8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
12 The Pellucid PersPecTive
November 2021
53.5%
-5.0
64.0%
5.5
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021

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