The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021 - 6

Industry Performance
Tracking
'21 Season end approaches: Place your bets;
Jim, Scott or Stuart's Crystal Ball
By Jim Koppenhaver
I
think this past Sunday may have been my last round for this
season (if so, then 8 in total) but, as I watch the monthly
rounds numbers roll in from our Golf Market Research Center
subscribers (just under 100 nationally), it looks like there's still
considerable golf to be played this year. The November issue is
also an appropriate place to reflect on what we're seeing in golf
course performance because it was in this issue last year that I
launched my challenge for us to not be in the same spot in '21 in
which we found ourselves in '20; namely that we were in the closing
months of an unbelievable year and yet, all we knew about it
was Golf Datatech's Oct YtD public domain figures that rounds
were up 11% in total, 9% for Public and 17% for Private. Adding
in Pellucid IP on weather impact that we publish monthly, we
knew Utilization was 58%, up 5 pts vs. the '19 year end figure.
Beyond that, we knew bupkis about Golf Revenue, Average Rate,
Discount Rate or RevpAR. What a difference a year makes.
With the official launch of the GMRC back in March of this
year, Pellucid attempted to light a candle to better illuminate the
'21 season as it progressed and for the year end diagnostic benefits
(can you say State of the Industry?). While we didn't make as
much progress in building the initial Charter Member network
as I had hoped, we've assembled enough, passionate, inquisitive
and thought-leading participants for us collectively to know more
dimensions this year than in '20 and, importantly, to also know
the '19 values and comparisons vs. a non-COVID year.
6 The Pellucid PersPecTive
In this article though I want to have some fun and just focus
on how rounds have evolved during the year and a simple wager
that is playing out among myself, Scott Merchant of ClubProphet
Systems and longtime colleague Stuart Lindsay. It all
started during a Golf Gurus podcast back in Q1 where the 3 of
us were opining on what would happen in '21 as life returned
to normal and how many of the 60M incremental rounds ('20
vs. '19, national) and 1-2M " rookie " golfers would stick. I took
the analyst position and calculated that things would return to
pre-COVID normal about mid-year so I opined that we'd give
back about half the incremental rounds and land at 463M for
'21. Scott felt that there were a considerable number of veteran
golfers that had sat out COVID and they would replace the defectors
basically balancing out the downside so he took the bet
of we'd match or exceed last year's 493M rounds. Stuart jumped
in and thought we'd have a shot at matching '20, for slightly different
reasons (but we were just betting on the number, not how
we got there), and hence the bet was joined for a steak dinner at
the winner's venue and date of choice. I've gotta' tell you, back in
Q1 I felt pretty confident about that bet and the fact that Scott
and Stuart shortly thereafter started angling for a " net of weather "
adjustment bolstered my confidence. Let's take a look at how the
season has unfolded and where it stands through September and
you'll see why the odds are now solidly in their favor.
The graph at the top of the next page outlines how the season
November 2021
PHOTO BY ARTHUR OGLEZNEV/UNSPLASH
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021

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