The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022 - 14

WEATHER
IMPACT
APRIL
Pac
NW Cst N
April Extends Early
Season Ugliness
A
pril weather damage was deep and broad as Golf Playable
Hours (GPH) were down 19% vs. Year-Ago (YA).
That moved the Year-to-Date (YtD) GPH to -14% which
only represented a modest decline from March's -10% level (but
it's moving the wrong direction and in double-digit decline territory).
Regional breadth swung solidly negative at 1:4 with 8
favorable regions vs. 32 unfavorables and 5 in the neutral zone
(+/- 2%) with all 45 regions now " in season. " You can get that full
picture monthly one of three ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
Played Rounds for March as published by Golf Datatech
showed a return to our pre-COVID pattern with rounds predictably
following weather " south " registering a 14% decline,
consistent with our " call " of double-digit-down for rounds
based on the March weather we already knew. According to
Datatech, Public drove the decrease at -16% compared to Private
which was -10%. To the critical question of how much
weather impacted the significant rounds decline, recall that the
previously-reported March GPH drop was -19% so Utilization
provides the " truth " of how
we performed reflected in the 3
point gain and breaks our eight
consecutive month decline in
this key metric.
Jim Koppenhaver comments
After having to
chronicle the
March 19%
decline in GPH I
thought " It can't
get much worse
than this " but,
unfortunately
April proved
me wrong.
on the results, " After having
to chronicle the March 19%
decline in GPH I thought " It
can't get much worse than this "
but, unfortunately April proved
me wrong.
The bigger challenge
is that April is a bigger
rounds contributor to the year
than March so this one's actually
going to hurt more in the
grand scheme of '22. I was also
thinking that it may be against an elevated base in '21 but,
when compared against the 10-yr Norm, '22 was double-digits
worse than " normal " as well so there was no solace there. The
silver lining, as outlined in detail in April's Outside the Ropes,
is the Utilization Rate (weather-adjusted consumer demand)
14 The Pellucid PersPecTive
So
CA Coast
C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
Pac
Inland N
Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
climbed slightly in March which suggests that the COVIdend
is still present if we can get a break from Mother Nature
in May and beyond. Notable market gainers in Utilization
March Year-to-Date (YtD) were Miami and Dallas, both up
double digits. Los Angeles/Orange County is the notable key
market loser on the same metric and period. Due to the diligence
of Golf Market Research Center subscribers submitting
their figures promptly each month, we've seen the April early
returns for Rounds and Golf Revenue and it appears that we'll
register gains in both Utilization and RevpAR for April as well
so that's the silver lining as we wade through the early season
weather ugliness. If you were a GMRC subscriber, you'd know
those numbers and whether to panic or stay the course on marketing
and financial projections for the season. "
May 2022

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610

The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022

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