The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022 - 17

Jan Feb Mar
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
15%
Golf Playable Hours 2022 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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I
-10%
-14%
-19%
-19%
Source: Pellucid
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above outlines our 2nd consecutive month of weather ugliness in the April GPH results finishing down 19% for the month.
We've already seen the preview of the April rounds from our Golf Market Research Center subscribers and it looks like we'll again
have a Utilization gain for the month so rounds are showing some resilience to the weather pounding we're taking; if you were a
subscriber you'd already know them as well, hint, hint. Through 4 months the GPH figure rests at -14% so not a great weather
start for the season or, for that matter, our counter-seasonal markets. If you want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball "
for our '22 year-end " call " at the national level (it's leveling out as a result of the Mar-Apr carnage) you can get that by subscribing
to our Geographic Weather Impact tracking. For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific weather forecast
service for the next 60 days by subscribing to Cognilogic Foresight.
Pellucid Publications Membership
Geographical Weather Impact
Cognilogic
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I I I I I
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
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Jan Feb Mar
3.4
1.4
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-1.1
-1.2
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (61%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
The Utilization decline streak of 2 months was broken with March's 3 point gain in the face of the weather gale-force wind.
Jim's call for March was up 5-10 points so he gets the direction right but misses (high) on the magnitude measure. For April he's
going to avoid making the same mistake and hedge his bet to a 3-5 point gain in Utilization meaning that the rounds results will
finish -15% or better against the ugly weather. Our GMRC subscribers have already seen their April results via the GMRC trend
and scorecard views which are proprietary to those contributing to the " collective " ; you too could be in-the-know by inquiring here.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
17
Utilization Rate 2022 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022

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