The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022 - 18

MARKET FOCUS
Phoenix, at #3 ranked,
showing good trends and
a threat to move up in '21
Phoenix, AZ Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging
from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. We're
now working our way through the Top 25 markets based on the
last time we updated it to catch the markets we've neglected in
our Top-down, then Bottom-up treatments (we only have 12
months/yr between updates and we have 25 markets to cover;
someone is going to get left out). For regular followers of this
column, you'll notice 2 changes in the map above and noted in
the Legend: 1) We're now distinguishing within Public-Regulation
Length the Munis (green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue
symbols) and 2) We've added Closed Courses since 2000 (black
symbols). Our recently-released '20 version of the GLMA contains
numerous enhancements in supply tracking as well as annual
timeseries charts for rounds ('00-'20) and golfers ('05-'20)
for every US location. The '21 update will be coming shortly as
we await last year's consumer survey results.
In this issue, we'll profile the 3rd ranked market, the Phoenix
Metro CBSA which, surprisingly, we haven't profiled in the Perspective
since 2nd half '19. Phoenix took a hit during the early
phase of COVID but the fact that AZ had fewer restrictions,
even at COVID's peak, and the increased popularity of golf for
the local population seemed to replace some of the forfeited destination
rounds helping fuel a quick and complete comeback.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Phoenix punches around its
composite ranking weight coming in 2nd in rounds among US
markets with facility-reported annual demand of ~9M rounds
(that's the through-the-turnstiles tally which counts both local
and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see
that the market is home to a healthy local golfer base of ~500K
golfers (this is resident population only). That resident golfer
base is served by a healthy supply base of 228 18-hole equivalent
(EHE) facilities producing an average ratio of ~2.2K resident
golfers per EHE (remember, tourists not being counted
in this metric), significantly higher than the national average
(166 index).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a significant bias
to Public-Premium vs. the national distribution (140 index).
The split between Private/Public is 23%/77%, skewed to Public
vs. the national average of 28%/72%. The balance between
18 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Golfer
Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Phoenix, AZ
CBSA Tot US
497.1 21,065
228 16,034
2,180 1,314
3,852
23% 29%
Index
vs. US
166
78
28% 20% 140
24% 23% 105
15% 18%
83
10% 10% 103
Supply/Demand Balance*
- '00-'20 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'20 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'20 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
4% -8%
11% 6%
7% 14%
10,565,870
46.3 30.9 150
67% 59% 114
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value
golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 51%/49%
which is similar to the national average of 54%/46%. Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 42%/36%/22% which, compared to the national
distribution of 33%/38%/30%, skews to Premium at the expense
of Price. Remember also that we establish the Premium/
Value/Price segments by individual market so that's factoring
in differences in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets
(unlike NGF where Manhattan NY has the same price segmentation
as Manhattan KS, go figure).
Using our methodology for calculating Supply/Demand
May 2022
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022
