The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022 - 19

equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00-'20
based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you can see
in the table above that Supply grew 4% over that period, well
above the national average contraction of -8% (which represents
a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly
0.5%). On the facility-reported rounds demand side of the
equilibrium equation, that growth in supply was accompanied
by an unusually strong rounds increase over the '00-'20 period
of 11%, which significantly beat the benchmark US level
(+6%). The confluence of these two factors results in a supply
absorption for the period of 7% which trails the national
benchmark of +14% (because Phoenix hasn't had the supply
contraction of the US which is actually a " plus " if the rounds
demand will support it). This suggests that Phoenix is back to
'00 health and actually slightly better coming out of COVID.
Looking at the productivity of the average facility using
our proprietary velocity measure shows throughput of ~46K
rounds per year, well above the national average of ~31K. Applying
our industry-exclusive Utilization measure (played
rounds/capacity rounds), we see that, after weather adjustment,
the market still outperforms on " productivity " with a 67% Utilization
Rate (114 index). This is exactly the reason we created
weather impact, to sort out absolute (the things we can control
as operators) vs. relative (things we can't) performance.
In summary, Phoenix has been an annual rising star (not
exactly a " coming back from the ashes " story but had to work
in that reference, sorry) from its initial position within the Top
10 to its current #3 ranking. It'll be hard for it to knock off perennial
leader San Diego but #2 Denver could be within reach
when we release the '21 scores and rankings. One of the big
challenges lurking for Phoenix and " downstream " southern CA
markets and courses is the current water situation and weather
patterns. Colleague Harvey Silverman sends us periodic articles
on the Colorado River and Lake Mead water levels and
things continue to get uglier on that front which will force
even more hard decisions between consumption, sanitation and
recreation demands. Outside that however, destinations like
Phoenix, Vegas etc. seem to be poised to roar back to life which
can't hurt the tourist golf dynamics; we'll have a better picture
when we end the summer period and come back into Phoenix's
counter-seasonal strength period.
We'd have even better visibility to document Phoenix's
strength and " COVID bounce " if we could convince a few
more (we have a couple currently) market owner/operators to
participate in the GMRC during the '22 season. You can get
more info on the GMRC and instructions on how to subscribe
for our current promotion bundle (GMRC + Cognilogic historical
weather impact + Foresight 60 day Capacity Rds forecast
+ Outside the Ropes + the State of the Industry presentation
for $500/yr, wow!) in one of two ways:
* Read the 2-page Program Overview:
* View the 18-min recorded demo of the tool and
program plans/pricing etc. (fill in your name and email
and it will open the video link; you're not signing up
for anything)
If you'd like more detailed Golf Local Market profiling
there are 3 ways to get it:
* Single location Golf Local Market Analysis
* Top 25 US Golf Markets Ranking Scorecard
* Golf Local Market Analyzer software license (unlimited
analyses, web-delivered, 24/7)
" Clear Solutions to
Golf's Business Issues "
Visit our website and register for more information and free sample reports at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Or, contact Jim Koppenhaver to discuss your unique needs at jimk@pellucidcorp.com or 847.612.6717
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
19

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/gmrc-overview https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/7458806921132082700 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/GLMA-Data-workbook-p235238751 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Top-25-US-Golf-Markets-Scorecard-c60114161 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/GLMA-annual-license-Basic-edition-p235240900 http://www.pellucidcorp.com http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2022