The Pellucid Perspective - June 2022 - 18

MARKET FOCUS
Denver rises to #2 in
current ranking; ready to
take on #1 San Diego?
Denver, CO Core Business
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging
from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. We're
now working our way through the Top 25 markets based on the
last time we updated it to catch the markets we've neglected in
our Top-down, then Bottom-up treatments (we only have 12
months/yr between updates and we have 25 markets to cover;
someone is going to get left out). For regular followers of this
column, you'll notice 2 changes in the map above and noted in
the Legend: 1) We're now distinguishing within Public-Regulation
Length the Munis (green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue
symbols) and 2) We've added Closed Courses since 2000 (black
symbols). Our recently-released '20 version of the GLMA contains
numerous enhancements in supply tracking as well as annual
timeseries charts for rounds ('00-'20) and golfers ('05-'20)
for every US location. The '21 update will be coming shortly as
we now have the '21 consumer survey results.
In this issue, we'll profile the 2nd ranked market, the Denver
Metro CBSA which has moved up in the rankings every year
since we started the Top 25 US Golf Markets scorecard back
in '14. Because Denver is more of a local than destination golf
market it didn't take the same type of COVID hit that we saw
in last month's feature on the Phoenix AZ market and it's also
run counter to the national trend in supply/demand historically
as we'll see in the below profile.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Denver punches significantly below
its composite ranking weight coming in 25th in rounds among
US markets with facility-reported annual demand of ~3.5M
rounds (that's the through-the-turnstiles tally which counts
both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base,
we see that the market is home to a healthy local golfer base of
~243K golfers (this is resident population only). That resident
golfer base is served by a relatively thin supply base of 98 18hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average ratio of
~2.5K resident golfers per EHE (remember, tourists not being
counted in this metric), significantly higher than the national
average (189 index).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a significant bias to Public-Value
at 34% of total holes and a 150 index vs. the national
distribution. The split between Private/Public is 31%/69%, very
18 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Golfer
Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Supply/Demand Balance*
- '00-'20 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'20 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'20 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
Denver, CO
CBSA Tot US
243.7 21,065
98 16,034
2,487 1,314
189
1,566
31% 29% 107
20% 20%
98
34% 23% 150
11% 18%
3% 10%
64
34
7% -8%
17% 6%
10% 14%
3,463,703
35.3 30.9 114
72% 59% 124
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
similar to the national average of 28%/72%. The balance between
Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value
golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 51%/49%
which is also similar to the national average of 54%/46%. Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 30%/53%/18% which, compared to the national
distribution of 33%/38%/30%, skews to Value at the expense of
Price. Remember also that we establish the Premium/Value/
Price segments by individual market so that's factoring in differences
in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike
other providers where Manhattan NY has the same price segmentation
as Manhattan KS, go figure).
June 2022
Index
vs. US
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2022

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