The Pellucid Perspective - November 2022 - 12

WEATHER
IMPACT
OCTOBER
Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N
Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
October Decline is
" Just a Flesh Wound "
No
O
ctober weather results followed the September's trend
as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) decreased at the same
rate for a second consecutive month falling 2% vs. YearAgo
(YA). That basically held the YtD deficit at -5%. Regional
breadth YtD improved slightly but remained negative at 1:9 with
only 3 favorable regions vs. 28 unfavorables and 14 in the neutral
zone (+/- 2%). You can get that full picture monthly in multiple
ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
* Subscribe to the Golf Market Research Center (facility
level, portal access, includes access to both Cognilogic
(historical Capacity Rds) and Foresight (60 day forecast
Capacity Rounds)
Played Rounds for September as published by Golf Datatech
once again mirrored our previously-reported modest GPH
unfavorability coming in at -2% which produced flat Utilization
for the month. For the YtD period, Utilization manages
to stay above the 60% level which represents a 2-point increase
over last year.
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, " The 2nd month
of the loosely-defined shoulder season for the northern climates
(Sep-Nov) was once again a slight weather " downer " but
we haven't experienced any wild shifts in weather (i.e. +-5% or
more) that we sometimes see in Q2 and Q4. The unfortunate
news is that we're not getting any weather late-season help so
pretty much what you had coming out of the core season is
what you're going to get for the year. Looking back at September
Utilization, we're returning to a pattern where rounds
follow weather but, importantly, we're doing that at a 60%
Utilization level or better vs. pre-pandemic that pattern was
treading water at the 50-55% Utilization level. Diving deeper
into the September YtD market-level leaders & laggards for
Utilization, Minneapolis and Dallas continue atop the leaderboard
(both in the face of crushing year-to-year GPH negative
12 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
Inland S
C CA
Valley N
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
So
CA Coast
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
comps, see your market-level breakdown sheet for the figures)
while Boston leapt into the laggard leadership position with
a 6% decline in rounds YtD against flat weather impact followed
by previously-identified laggard markets of NYC and
Washington DC (both of those also powered by rounds declines
greater than their weather impact).
Returning to the
October weather, we've compiled the preliminary results from
our Golf Market Research Center portfolio of courses and
they're showing a modest gain in Utilization (rounds slightly
up against weather slightly down) so Jim's call for minus 1-2%
missed the mark. Our GMRC subscribers already know their
weather-adjusted October performance as well as the 60-day
forecast for Capacity Rounds for their facility; you could too
(hint, hint). "
November 2022

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Regl-Key-Mkts-Weather-Impact-Subscription-c130513021 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Weather-Services-c60126191 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Weather-Services-c60126191

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2022

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