The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 5

lyzed 120 Million forecasts from 2015 - 2018, Accuweather's
forecasts were significantly more accurate than those of The
Weather Company (IBM), Weather Underground (also IBM),
Dark Sky and others; particularly in the area of High/Low
Temperatures and Wind Speed - 3 of the 14 variables we use
in our calculation for Golf Playable Hours. In another 2022 -
2023 development, Dark Sky was purchased and phased out by
Apple. We know that several golf businesses have used Dark
Sky but will have to look elsewhere for historical data that is no
longer available on the replacement app from Apple.
We also got introduced to the concept of a " cubic spline "
curve and its more accurate reflection of the " weather normalization "
as opposed to the " arithmetic average " used in prior
weather reporting. Accuweather uses " cubic spline " to calculate
our 10 Year Normal data. The extensive explanation cited
in the article by Steve Root above is another example of how
our Golf Playable Hour (GPH) metric and its annual updates
are more accurate. We should add that Pellucid's golf weather
data is now being cited by the NGF replacing data previously
obtained from a different weather source.
What most of you may not realize is that Steve Root
has been Pellucid's " resident meteorologist " since 2005. He
(and his co-founding twin brother, Michael) helped us create
our first formulas for GPH and all the modifications and
upgrades since. That includes the adaptation of our GPH
formulas to Accuweather's extensive forecasting capabilities
to create the 60 Day advanced look at Golf Course Capacity
calculations.
Based on our preview session, Accuweather continues to
refine and expand its weather analytic applications. Forecasting
accuracy continues to improve and the delivery of user
friendly weather guidance will also be enhanced. It's also nice
to know that our historical data used in our performance analytics
are also " state-of-the-art " ; and that Accuweather recognizes
the importance of the golf specific work we have cooperatively
built with them.
This new use of aggregated forecasts also sets the stage for
a very interesting early acid test for 2023. We are going to be
able to monitor rounds in key markets - it looks like we are
going to need to see increases to indicate we are sustaining the
positive momentum of the past 3 years. Unlike 2022, when
much of the bad weather impact showed up in Q4; the Q1
2023 forecast for better weather will give us much better guidance.
I probably could have done it last year; but the 60 Day
forecast is still a relatively new tool for us. I guess that's part
of what makes weather analytics " fun " - it's getting better and
there are always new things to learn. It's also fun to know we
continue to learn from the best.
n
To learn more, contact us at 888.827.9775,
or visit TrueClubSolutions.com.
TRUECLUBSOLUTIONS.COM | 888.827.9775
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
5
https://www.troon.com/family-of-brands/true-club-solutions/ http://www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023

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