The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 8
LOCAL MARKET
ANALYSIS
roughly the '10 level. You can see in the far 2 right columns
(CACR = Compound Annual Change Rate) though that the
golfer base is ascendent and the rate of change has accelerated
in the past 5 yrs vs. the past 10-yr period. That's all good for our
cause if we're trying to make the case that the market dynamics
are favorable for the subject property.
Finally, let's look at how rounds have fared because, while
more golfers generally begets more rounds, that's not always the
case and, if they're lighter frequency, the rounds won't go up at
the same rate as the golfer base. See chart above.
Here we see a slightly different pattern. From our starting
point in '07 to '21, rounds have grown ~2% over the period
(only slightly more than the golfer base, be careful, because
you have two different starting points, you need to look at
the first CACR column for an accurate, annual growth comparison
or 0.2% for rounds vs. 0% for golfers). Similar to the
golfer base, we can see that the growth rate in rounds has accelerated
in the most recent 5-yrs (good). In that most recent
5-yrs though the golfer base annual growth is faster than
rounds so that means frequency declined slightly. That could
be due to new golfers who generally come in at lower frequencies
initially; that's a feature, not a bug.
I could go on, but I think you get the point that there are
many key dimensions of market analysis which aren't " optional "
in trying to evaluate the performance of your course or if you're
a buyer or seller of a course. In my opinion, this should be an
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8 The Pellucid PersPecTive
February 2023
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The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023
TOC
Forecasting is an art, but ‘23’s “art” for golf looks promising
Contrary to conventional wisdom, market analysis is “essential” not “optional”
9 Activities; larger companies are both investing and cashing out
Jan GPH amazes +34% (wow!); promising start or 1-month anomaly?
Dec Utilization makes modest gain (vs. -30% GPH), full year finishes positive & above 60%
Phoenix in the sports spotlight; market moving in right direction to capitalize on more tourists
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Forecasting is an art, but ‘23’s “art” for golf looks promising
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Contrary to conventional wisdom, market analysis is “essential” not “optional”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 9 Activities; larger companies are both investing and cashing out
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Jan GPH amazes +34% (wow!); promising start or 1-month anomaly?
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Dec Utilization makes modest gain (vs. -30% GPH), full year finishes positive & above 60%
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Phoenix in the sports spotlight; market moving in right direction to capitalize on more tourists
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 17
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