The Pellucid Perspective - November 2023 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
San Francisco, at #3, only has to fear...itself
San Francisco-Oakland, CA
Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 4 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Revenue/Pricing strength.
In this issue, we'll fix a gross omission by profiling the San
Francisco-Oakland, CA CBSA which, although it's been a
perennial Top 10, we last profiled in the Perspective in 2020
(oops). Since our first ranking back in '15 when it debuted
at #4, San Fran has ranked in the 3-10 range landing at #3
in '21 with the last 3 rankings shown in the " tale of the tape "
below:
* Composite Health Ranking: 3
* Last 3 Composite Health Rankings: 10th, 9th, 3rd ('17,
'19, '21)
* Number of Golfers Market Ranking: 14
* Number Rounds Market Ranking: 18
* Number of Holes Market Ranking: 24 (land-constrained)
Looking
at the market profile measures (above table), we
see that the market has a healthy golf consumer base of ~322K
golfers (this is local, resident population only).
That golfer
base is served by a constrained supply base of only 81 18hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an average ratio
of ~4.0K local resident golfers per EHE, soaring above the
national average (287 index).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a heavy bias
to Private (43% of Supply, see all the red stars in the map?)
vs. the national distribution (148 index). The split between
Private/Public is 43%/57% which skews significantly to Private
vs. the national average of 28%/72%. The balance between
Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium)
vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice)
is 60%/40% which is meaningfully tilted to Value-added vs.
the US average of 49%/51% (Private overabundance appears
to have dampened development of Public-Prem). Remember
also that we establish the Premium/Value/Price segments by
individual market so that's factoring in differences in cost of
living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike industry trade
associations' classifications where Manhattan NY has the
same price segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure). Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 35%/27%/38% which is surprising looking at
the balance between affordable golf (Price) and mid-range
(Value); one would think with cost of land, taxes, regulations,
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
San Francisco/
Oakland, CA
CBSA Tot US
322 21,065
81 15,242
3,973 1,382
287
1,287
43% 29% 148
17% 20%
13% 22%
18% 20%
9%
85
59
90
9% 100
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
3,608,489
44.6 32.4
63% 54%
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
138
115
Index
vs. US
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
environmental
concerns etc. that affordable golf would be a
dinosaur in San Fran but you'd be wrong when comparing vs.
the national distribution of 32%/35%/32%.
Looking at the productivity of the average facility in the
market, using our proprietary Velocity measure (Annual
Rounds per 18-hole equivalent), shows ~45K rounds per year
which indexes at 138 and well above the national average of
32K. Applying our industry-exclusive Utilization measure
(played rounds/capacity rounds), we still see significantly
higher performance, after weather adjustment, of 63% which
still indexes (115) above the national average of 54%. In other
words, our golf " factories " in San Francisco are running at
November 2023
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2023

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