The Pellucid Perspective - November 2023 - 5

One of the things that golf as an
industry has lamented over the past 10
years (and we've been in that chorus
as well) is our reliance on the 50-plus
crowd for rounds and revenue and we
don't " look like the US population. "
paying more tolerable. Less exertive activity combined
with slower metabolisms means smaller portions and
food, once in the house, just seems to go further than it
used to. On the gas front, with work-from-home being
much more prevalent (I was going to say particularly to
Seniors but, in fairness, probably only proportionately
for Seniors), commuting costs have been significantly
reduced as well. If I put 6K miles on either of my cars
in a year it's now unusual and that takes considerably
less gas than our family days when the van always
had 15K miles/yr by itself between ferrying kids, local
weekend family outings and the occasional road trip
* Medical insurance/expenses - Having reached the
golden milestone of being Medicare-eligible this year,
that reduces some of the financial planning burden for
health insurance for Seniors like me (and the other
reason they put up with that crappy job and snotty
boss for so long). Seniors who take reasonable care of
their health and have reasonable habits generally reap
the benefits of reduced expenses during this lifestage
(understanding that life is random and this can change
suddenly)
*
Discretionary time - With more discretionary time,
Seniors can now invest some of that into being more
diligent consumers and chasing down/eliminating
nuisance expenses that they ignored when they were
busy working and raising families. On my list are
getting rid of our landline ($700/yr savings) and cordcutting
Comcast ($1,200/yr savings). How much more
golf could I play with $1.9K each year?
* Taxes & state regulation - Another " feature " of
being a Senior is you're generally getting government
breaks along the way or you have time to pursue more
and creative ways to get Uncle Sam's " hand out of
your pocket " that you just tolerated when younger.
Appealing your tri-year property taxes (here in IL) and
making sure all your Senior exemptions are factored in
(many of them not means-tested, you can be drawing
6-figures here in IL and still qualify for many of the
Senior Savings just for " being old " ) are other ways to
limit your annual charitable contributions to the US
Government. Another is to raise your allowances/
lower Federal tax withholding so you get the benefit of
keeping and investing your money vs. taking pleasure
in that annual return of your money in the form of a
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refund that Uncle Sam got the financial benefit of for
a full year
* Savings and " passive income " - Finally, on the flip
side (income vs. expenses), the upside for Seniors is
higher fixed rate, lower-risk vehicles for savings and
generating income have returned. I couldn't believe
my Mom's 8% COLA for Social Security last year
and the fact that, based on her expenses and what she
currently consumes as a 90-year old in Dallas, her nest
egg actually increased slightly due to that imbalance.
Ten-year Treasuries that recently paid 5%? With
inflation retreating to ~4% recently and ticking down
(by tenths), it would appear you could stay ahead of it
with little-to-no risk which hasn't happened in like the
last decade, right?
Realizing that the above is the classic " survey-of-one " which
is always dangerous in supporting an argument, I think reasonable
people would agree that many of the current economic
headwinds for the general population are either greatly reduced
or non-existent for the Senior population that's living at, let's say,
2x the poverty line or above (and remember, we're talking about
Senior golfers here, so generally not fixed income/paycheck-topaycheck
people). One of the things that golf as an industry has
lamented over the past 10 years (and we've been in that chorus
as well) is our reliance on the 50-plus crowd for rounds and
revenue and we don't " look like the US population. " The current
macro-economic conditions, when viewed through the lens
above, might suggest that our heavy reliance on Seniors, at least
for the next 3-5 years, may be a benefit rather than a handicap.
Returning to the WSJ article, they outline that the 65+ crowd's
spending was up 2.7% in '22 vs. '21 which was nearly 4x the under-65
crowd's increase of +0.7%. Going further back in history,
they cite the 65+ age group is up 35% vs. '82 compared to +17%
for the under-65 set or a 2x differential. That suggests that the
Seniors' economic resiliency exists over some span of time, not
just the post-COVID, rising interest rates era.
And then there's the Silent Generation wealth transfer benefit
to the Baby Boomers that's underway. All of the above just
deals with the financial planning and present-year economics
of the average 65+ household. Lurking in the background (in a
good way) is the over-and-above benefit to the Baby Boomers
(ages 59-77 in " 2023 years " ) of wealth transfer from parents,
relatives and, in some cases, close friends with no immediate
family or some family drama. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research
The Pellucid PersPecTive
5
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The Pellucid Perspective - November 2023

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