The Pellucid Perspective - December 2023 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
Cincinnati, at #23, revisited since last
review in '21, drops slightly
Cincinnati, OH
Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 4 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Revenue/Pricing strength.
In this issue, we'll revisit a market last reviewed in '21, the
Cincinnati, OH CBSA which has been a perennial 15th25th
ranking resident over time (not shabby though out of
200+ markets in the US). Since our first ranking back in '15
when it debuted at #20, let's look at the " tale of the tape " for
the most current ranking and history below:
* Composite Health Ranking: 23
* Last 3 Composite Health Rankings: 23rd, 20th, 23rd
('17, '19, '21)
* Number of Golfers Market Ranking: 20
* Number Rounds Market Ranking: 22
* Number of Holes Market Ranking: 17
Looking at the market profile measures (above table),
we see that the market has a healthy golf consumer base of
~182K golfers (this is local, resident population only). That
golfer base is served by a healthy supply base of 111 18-hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an above-average ratio
of ~1.6K local resident golfers per EHE (118 index).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a moderate bias
to Private (36% of Supply, see all the red stars in the map?)
vs. the national distribution (124 index). The split between
Private/Public is 36%/64% which skews to Private vs. the national
average of 28%/72% (129 index). The balance between
Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value
golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 54%/46%
which is slightly tilted to Value-added vs. the US average of
49%/51% (110 index, Private overabundance appears to weigh
on development of Public-Prem). Remember also that we
establish the Premium/Value/Price segments by individual
market so that's factoring in differences in cost of living/cost
of golf as we cross markets (unlike industry trade associations'
classifications where Manhattan NY has the same price segmentation
as Manhattan KS, go figure). Within Public-Regulation
golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is
33%/44%/24% which skews to Value at the expense of Price
vs. the national distribution of 32%/35%/32%.
Looking at the productivity of the average facility in the
market, using our proprietary Velocity measure (Annual
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Rounds
per 18-hole equivalent), shows ~30K rounds per year
which indexes at 91, modestly off the national average of 32K.
Applying our industry-exclusive Utilization measure (played
rounds/capacity rounds), we see even slightly lower comparative
performance, after weather adjustment, of 47% vs. the national
average of 54% (87 index). In other words, the golf " factories "
in Cincinnati have upside potential to produce more
rounds both in the absolute and weather-adjusted.
One of the interesting observations of the market map is the
abundance of Private clubs juxtaposed to how many facilities have
gone under (the black hexagons) since we started tracking those
around 2015. Also interesting is the " tree ring pattern " (channeling
colleague Stuart Lindsay) with the Private clubs dominating
the city and immediate surrounds along with municipal golf
December 2023
Closed
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
Cincinnati, OH
CBSA Tot US
182 21,065
111 15,242
1,632 1,382
Index
vs. US
118
1,715
36% 29% 124
18% 20%
90
24% 22% 109
13% 20%
8%
9%
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
3,333,502
30.0 32.4
47% 54%
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
65
89
93
87
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2023

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