The Pellucid Perspective - February 2024 - 12

WEATHER
IMPACT
JANUARY
Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N
January Tough
Start to '24
A
fter two incredibly good months to close '23, January
swung the other direction in equal magnitude as Golf
Playable Hours (GPH) were down 30% vs. Year-Ago
(YA) which also represents the Year-to-Date (YtD) mark in the
opening month of the year. The YtD regional breadth metric
starts the year in negative territory at a 1:3 ratio comprised of 6
favorable regions vs. 20 unfavorables and 0 in the neutral zone
(+/- 2%) with the remaining 19 regions out-of-season. You can
get that full picture monthly in multiple ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
* Subscribe to the Golf Market Research Center (facility
level, portal access, includes access to both Cognilogic
(historical Capacity Rds) and Foresight (60 day forecast
Capacity Rounds)
Key
Played Rounds for December as published by Golf Datatech
came in at a whopping +24% at the All Facilities level. While
an incredibly strong, positive number, that actually significantly
trailed our previously-reported December GPH result of +43%
resulting in a 2nd consecutive month of Utilization declines
with the month posting an 8 point drop at 53%.
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, " Tough sledding
is the perfect headline for the January weather results as it represents
one of the largest year-to-year drops we've seen since
launching weather tracking in '04. As I always do, with these
big swings I go back to the 10-yr Norm to see if the base year
was abnormally high or low and the answer here was found in
the January GPH comparison to the 10-yr average of -14% so
it was poor both relative to last year and the average as well.
Across the 45 weather regions we saw strength in CA as a state
(all 5 of their regions were up), led by Central Valley north up
41%, while SE Inland (Atlanta & surrounds), FL North and
Hawaii all saw double-digit deficits (say that 3 times fast) for
the opening month of '24. Looking at the January YtD weather
gains/losses among the Top 25, Sacramento had the most
favorable weather, +23%, while Dallas, Seattle, Atlanta and Raleigh
all saw 35%+ declines vs. '23. Looking at the December
YtD Utilization leaders & laggards, Miami won the crown for
12 The Pellucid PersPecTive
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S
C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
So
CA Coast
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
top gainer (+10 pts, they posted a +4% in rounds against a 14%
GPH decline, wow!) while Minneapolis realized its Q4 destiny
as the biggest Utilization loser for '23 (-6 pts, rounds up 2% vs.
a 16% increase in GPH, ouch!). We've run the initial January
submissions from our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC)
subscribers for Rounds, Golf Revenue and Rate Card and, predictably,
rounds followed the weather downdraft double-digits
so we can expect a shocker in Golf Datatech's report later this
month. In addition to knowing their weather-adjusted performance,
our GMRC subscribers also have visibility into the
summarized portfolio of participants and a limited number
of markets to reference whether their performance is pacing,
leading or lagging the GMRC portfolio universe; you could
too (hint, hint). "
February 2024

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Regl-Key-Mkts-Weather-Impact-Subscription-c130513021 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Weather-Services-c60126191 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/golf-market-research-center

The Pellucid Perspective - February 2024

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