The Pellucid Perspective - February 2024 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
Look at Las Vegas (not a Top 25) as Super Bowl bow,
healthy but not rosy outlook
Las Vegas, Henderson, Paradise NV
Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we're going to step outside the Top 25
US Golf Markets and profile recent Super Bowl game host
city, Las Vegas (which also includes Paradise, how ironic!).
While the game is yet to be played as of this writing, you'll
have the benefit reading it of knowing whether Taylor Swift
won or not (oh, forgot, she was neither playing nor singing).
The money gods have to be smiling though with the irony of
professional sports swimming in gambling cash hosting one of
their premier events at the betting capital of the US (next up,
Macau which we believe is the betting capital of the world). We
also pause to point out and say a prayer for the fact that Super
Bowl is reportedly the highest single day for human trafficking
and, in recognition, the NFL has the last several seasons run
their " It's a Penalty " campaign to raise awareness of the issue.
Looking at the market profile measures (above table), we
see that the market has a healthy golf consumer base of ~122K
golfers (this is local, resident population). One of the valuable
aspects of the Golf Local Market Analyzer (GLMA) is that
we estimate/measure rounds demand using both a consumer
survey method (golfers x average rounds = consumer surveyreported
rounds which, for Las Vegas is ~1.9M rounds) and a
facility-reported rounds (above figure of ~2.1M) method and
the difference gives us an indicator of the magnitude of nonlocal
play. We can see in this instance that we believe ~200K
rounds annually (or ~10%) are non-market golfers/play. The local
golfer base is served by a moderate supply base of 61 18-hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing an above-average ratio of
~2K local resident golfers per EHE (144 index). Looking at the
map however and the black hexagons, you can see that Supply
in Vegas has " slimmed down " since we started tracking closings
back in '15 (proving that not everything that gets built in Vegas
stays in Vegas, ha, ha). We also see looking at the color dispersion
(green = muni, blue = for-profit) that Vegas is relatively
under-represented in muni golf vs. the average US market.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows an overall bias
to Public golf in general vs. the national distribution. The
split between Private/Public is 16%/84% which significantly
under-represents Private vs. the national average of 28%/72%
(57 index).
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
Las Vegas, NV
CBSA Tot US
122 21,065
61 15,242
1,986 1,382
7,065
16% 29%
144
55
27% 20% 135
26% 22% 118
25% 20% 125
6%
9%
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
2,091,767
34.1 32.4
52% 54%
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
67
105
95
Index
vs. US
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
has
the same price segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure).
Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price
is 35%/33%/32% which is very similar to
the national distribution of 32%/35%/32% (probably one of
only a few things where Vegas mirrors the US).
Looking at the productivity of the average facility in the
The balance between Value-added golf supply
(Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price
and Learning & Practice) is 43%/57% which is slightly tilted
to Value golf vs. the US average of 49%/51% (112 index). Remember
also that we establish the Premium/Value/Price segments
by individual market so that's factoring in differences
in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike industry
trade associations' classifications where Manhattan NY
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
market, using our proprietary Velocity measure (Annual
Rounds per 18-hole equivalent), shows ~34K rounds per year
which indexes modestly higher (105 index) than the Tot. US
All Facilities average of 32K. Applying our industry-exclusive
Utilization measure (played rounds/capacity rounds), we see
slightly worse comparative performance, after weather adjustment,
of 52% vs. the national average of 54% (95 index). In
other words, the golf " factories " in Las Vegas, between the
February 2024
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2024

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