The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
PGA Championship host city Louisville KY, could use
more, affordable " on-ramps " for golf
Louisville, KY
Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the 200+ Core Business
Statistical Areas (CBSAs) choosing the PGA Championship
host city of Louisville, KY. Professional, televised golf
will come and go this weekend with the 106th PGA Championship
at Valhalla Golf Club but what about the market for golf
the other 360+ days of the year? Let's take a look at the day-today
market beyond the fly in-fly out experience of golf's elite...
Looking at the market profile measures (table at right), we
see that the market has a golf consumer base of ~68K golfers
(this is local, resident population). The local golfer base
is served by a healthy supply base of 57 18-hole equivalent
(EHE) facilities which produces a below-average ratio of
~1.2K local resident golfers per EHE (86 index). Looking
at the map three things stand out: There's been significant
supply contraction since '15 (the black hexagons), Private golf
dominates the eastern half of the market (red stars) and muni
golf dominates the inner metro circle (green icons).
The Private/Public supply mix across Pellucid's five access/
value/usage segments, at 41%/59%, is dominated by Private
golf vs. the national distribution of 28%/72% (141 index, one
of the highest we've seen). The balance between Value-added
golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public
Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 58%/42% which is
slightly tilted to Value golf vs. the US average of 49%/51%
(114 index, Private golf seems to have limited Public-Premium
development which significantly under-indexes). Remember
also that we establish the Premium/Value/Price segments
by individual market so that's factoring in differences
in cost of living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike industry
trade associations' classifications where Manhattan NY
has the same price segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure).
Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price
is 31%/47%/22% which skews to the PubValue
segment vs. national distribution of 32%/35%/32% (134
index for Value).
Looking at the productivity of the average facility in the
market, using our proprietary Velocity measure (Annual
Rounds per 18-hole equivalent), shows ~32K rounds per year
which matches (100 index) the Tot. US All Facilities average
of 32K. Applying our industry-exclusive Utilization measure
(played rounds/capacity rounds), we see slight underperformance,
after weather adjustment, of 52% vs. the national average
of 54% (95 index, the slightly more favorable season
length than national doesn't result in higher velocity).
In
other words, the golf " factories " around Valhalla are slightly
below average in generating rounds within Mother Nature's
countenance.
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
Lousville, KY
CBSA Tot US
68 21,065
57 15,242
1,191 1,382
86
927
41% 29% 141
17% 22%
77
26% 23% 113
12% 17%
9%
4%
1,847,362
32.4 32.4
52% 54%
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
71
44
100
95
Index
vs. US
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
The
interesting juxtaposition here is that the city will be
hosting an elite competition at one of its many Private clubs
(kudos to Valhalla, this will be their 4th hosting of the PGA
Championship) but the market is considerably under-served
May 2024
Closed
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024

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