The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 5
of the fact that, no matter how hard we try, golf is
challenged to be a universally-affordable sport. I think
there are things that could be done to change the arc of
affordability but I don't see any of those happening in
the near future given market forces and current trends
(topic for a whole other future article)
* Analysis of the '23 golfer base and change across
lifestages/ages, the very encouraging sign here is that the
primary growth group was 18-34 which we label Early
Career. This group had the highest gain in bodies while
the 7-17 Juniors also matched their % change result of
+10%. Many in the industry have anecdotally remarked
that more younger customers are seen gracing their
fairways, this provides some quantitative support to that
observation
* Finally, looking at how engagement changed in the
expanding '23 golfer base vs. '22, the Casuals (1-9 rds/
golfer/yr) contributed the entirety of the increase. This
is the only concerning " mark " on the '23 report card;
we lost Committeds (40+ rds/yr, they could have either
downshifted to Involveds or left the sport (less likely
from their lofty perch of play in '22)). Some might
argue that adding new golfers will dilute the frequency
(true) but, in that scenario, the physical count of
Committeds won't decline, they'll simply be a smaller
share of golfers. Here we saw an actual decline in the
count of Committeds which should get our attention
The most frequent question we get in the current cycle regarding
the golfer base is, " How high could this go, how will we know
when we've peaked in annual growth and how long might the
growth cycle last? " Tough questions but, as always, we at least
have an approach and a data-supported opinion. Because of the
nature of the survey methodology of recollection ( " Did you play
golf in the last calendar year? " being asked in Q1 of the following
calendar year), we historically see considerable " bounce " in the
year-to-year numbers. As a result, I prefer to look at multi-year
patterns to measure change and my preferred metric for these
questions relating to the COVID surge is the 3-yr average values.
In the chart below you can see we've plotted the Compound
Annual Change Rate for the trailing 3 years for the years '19-'23
followed by my " storyline " (see graphic above):
* The 3-yr annual growth rate metric appears to have
peaked in '21 at ~2%
*
I fully expected to see a declines in the actual golfer
count in '21 and '22 from a COVID " peak " but that
hasn't happened. Using the multi-year " smoothing " is
Analysis of the '23 golfer base and change
across lifestages/ages, the very encouraging
sign here is that the primary growth group
was 18-34 which we label Early Career.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
5
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The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024
TOC
Baffling Golfer Base Growth Continued in ’23
Curating golfer characteristics and experiences; simply trendy or helpful?
Thin activity (9) continues, focus is on Transactions/Listings
May delivers setback with GPH -6%, Year-to-Date “resets” to flat (really, like 0%)
Apr Utilization basically flat at -1 pt (rounds, weather both up fractionally), Year-to-Date remains neutral at -1 pt
Pinehurst NC, host of upcoming US Open, destination golfer-driven with a “side” of local golfers
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - Baffling Golfer Base Growth Continued in ’23
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - Curating golfer characteristics and experiences; simply trendy or helpful?
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - Thin activity (9) continues, focus is on Transactions/Listings
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - May delivers setback with GPH -6%, Year-to-Date “resets” to flat (really, like 0%)
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - Apr Utilization basically flat at -1 pt (rounds, weather both up fractionally), Year-to-Date remains neutral at -1 pt
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - Pinehurst NC, host of upcoming US Open, destination golfer-driven with a “side” of local golfers
The Pellucid Perspective - June 2024 - 17
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