The Pellucid Perspective - July 2024 - 12

WEATHER
IMPACT
JUNE
Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N
June Delivers 2nd
Consecutive Setback
J
une followed our May " surprise " of -6% with a 9% decline
in GPH which now drags the Year-to-Date (YtD) in negative
territory at -3%. Although we're at the midway mark
calendar-wise, our multi-year " norm " for rounds is 44% of total
through June so we're just shy of halfway. The YtD regional
breadth metric also inverted but remains in our " neutral zone " at
a 1:1 ratio comprised of 15 favorable regions vs. 22 unfavorables
and 8 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). You can get that full picture
monthly in multiple ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
* Subscribe to the Golf Market Research Center (facility
level, portal access, includes access to both Cognilogic
(historical Capacity Rds) and Foresight (60 day forecast
Capacity Rounds)
National Played Rounds for May as published by Golf
Datatech were -1% at the All Facilities level which would suggest
a " ho-hum " month. It's only when you add in incredibly
unfavorable weather impact and look at the Utilization figure
that you realize the -1% was very healthy as golfers fought off
rain, heat and humidity resulting in Utilization registering 64%
for the month (+3 pts) and, for the YtD, 62% (+1 pt).
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, " Well, we didn't
see that one coming. While we don't get details on which
weather element eliminated the most GPH, my educated guess
is it was heat and humidity vs. any significant rain/flooding
events (although there were a couple of the latter but primarily
around riverways etc.). Regardless, a " delta " of more than 5% in
weather impact in the summer months is very unusual. Looking
at the map for the current month, it's pretty much all red in
the current month indicators (the left of the two arrow icons)
with OH Valley South and TX Central being the exceptions.
Looking at the YtD (right hand arrows), it's also a sea of red
with the Great Lakes and Pacific NW Coast among the leading
" greens " . Switching to June YtD market-level weather and
focusing on our Top 25 Markets, Denver had the biggest tailwind
at +21% while Minneapolis, Philly and Houston fought
the biggest headwind at ~-10% each. Finally, observing the
May YtD Utilization leaders & laggards, Minneapolis is the
12 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
No
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S
C CA
Valley N
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
So
CA Coast
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
clear leader (+12 pts, subpar weather, good rounds) while Denver
brings up the rear (-11 pts, great weather, average rounds).
We just finished compiling the " early returns " June submissions
from our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) subscribers
for Rounds, Golf Revenue and Rate Card and it suggests that
their rounds followed GPH downward but that we'll (once
again) show a positive Utilization which would reinforce the
May findings that post-COVID golfers appear to be more
weather-resilient than pre-COVID patterns. In addition to
knowing their weather-adjusted performance, our GMRC
subscribers also have visibility into the summarized portfolio
of participants and a limited number of markets to reference
whether their performance is pacing, leading or lagging the
GMRC portfolio universe; you could too (hint, hint). "
July 2024

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Regl-Key-Mkts-Weather-Impact-Subscription-c130513021 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Weather-Services-c60126191 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/golf-market-research-center

The Pellucid Perspective - July 2024

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