The Pellucid Perspective - July 2024 - 7

notes, contained the following observation on his part, " Southern
California (counties) are the most golf-starved locations in the
US. " It wasn't just his opinion, there were associated facts compiled
over several years from multiple sources which each provided
pieces contributing to the summary statement, but it got me
thinking about how one would empirically make that case and
what measures would one use. Pellucid veterans know that we
compile and publish the Top 25 US Golf Markets scoring and
ranking bi-annually but, previously, we would do the initial size
screening (rounds, golfers, holes) to get the Top 25 " select list " and
then start (and end) our scoring and ranking within that subset.
That led to one of those " What if? " moments (anyone remember
the HP Business Computing ads of the mid-80s where the person
in the middle of nowhere, or the shower etc. stopped to call someone
and say, " I was thinking, What if?.... " ) and the idea of scoring
all 207 US golf markets (defined by Designated Market Areas or
DMAs) based on strength after equivalizing for size was born.
What we would then get would be the strongest US golf markets,
not the best of the largest US golf markets. That would lead to
some very interesting observations about whether the larger markets
were actually also the strongest as well as the flipside question,
" What does it matter if Victoria, TX were the strongest golf
market in the country with <50 facilities and <250K rounds etc.? "
To figure this out you need a couple of things which, fortunately
and uniquely, we possess:
* At the DMA-level, figures on population size/trends,
golfer counts, rounds counts, supply levels and capacity
rounds
* The knowledge and creativity to figure out the sizeequivalized
measures and weighting system to turn all
those numbers into a fair and balanced scoring system
The first criteria is met using our Golf Local Market Analyzer
software which we built in the mid-2000s and have refined
multiple times en route to " current state. " That tool allows us to
easily and quickly (well, doing 207 extractions does take a little
time...) create the data set to tackle the question. The second
process isn't as easily explained and is part of our industry intellectual
property but here's the Cliff Notes version:
* What's the basic geographic building block? We
chose DMAs because they're mutually exclusive
and completely inclusive. Layman's terms, every US
County belongs in one, and only one DMA. Most
market rankings will use major metros (normally
Core Business Statistical Areas or CBSAs) but the
challenge there is that they're not completely inclusive.
For visual reference, the first map above right is the
coverage of the 207 US DMAs. For a more detailed
look, the 2nd image is the breakdown of DMAs within
Pellucid's home state of IL. The third map (below/
next page) shows what you get for coverage if you use
Metropolitan areas to define " markets " ; notice how
much white space exists (and all of that white space has
golf courses...)
www.PellucidcorP.com
* map
* What measures matter? For this we borrowed on what
we've used and refined for the annual industry scorecard
which is the opening slide in our annual State of the
Industry presentation in Orlando. Generally it focuses
on:
* o Play Rate (Rounds per Capita per Year, combines
elements of population, participation rate and
frequency rate change)
* o % Utilization (combines Velocity (Ann. Rounds
per 18-hole equivalent) and weather impact
(Velocity Rds/Capacity Rds = % Utilization))
The Pellucid PersPecTive
7
http://www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2024

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