The Pellucid Perspective - July 2024 - 9

So, the answer to the first question of " Are the largest golf
markets necessarily the strongest? " the answer is...somewhat.
You can't see what happens in the rest of the list but there
is a moderate correlation between size and strength that
becomes more evident outside the Top 10 comparison.
So, the answer to the first question of " Are the largest golf
markets necessarily the strongest? " the answer is...somewhat.
You can't see what happens in the rest of the list but there is a
moderate correlation between size and strength that becomes
more evident outside the Top 10 comparison. Likely there's no
surprises on the left-hand side of the above for any industry veterans
but I'm guessing no one (myself included) could have currently
identified even 5 of the Top 10 strongest US golf markets
on the right. Some other interesting observations:
* The " double-majors " - Some number of you (us)
might've picked Phoenix as appearing on both Top 10
lists but Minneapolis as the 2nd? ( " anyone, Bueller? " ).
Colleague Mike Dickoff of Apparation who hails from
the land of battery plug-in parking meters (winter) has
been eternally testifying to the strength of the market
but I think this one is even going to surprise him
* The 3rd through 7th ranked markets by strength likely
weren't on very many people's Elite Eight bracket picks.
What I also saw (again looking at the entire list) is that
states which are currently winning the corporate and
population shifts with net gains in inbound migration
(FL, TX etc.) are also well-represented in the golf
market strength while the net outflow states (CA, NY,
IL) are still well-represented, just falling in the rankings
to markets in the ascendent states
* When I look at the Market Strength scores and
rankings within the Top 25 US Golf Markets list
(we'll continue to track this because, regardless of their
strength, these are the markets that " move the national
needle " for industry health), the good news is that our
largest markets are also some of the strongest. Of the
Top 25, 16 have above-average composite index (>110)
Strength scores while 8 others have neutral scores (90110)
and only one, Indianapolis, has a below average
score (<90)
If you'll indulge me for one more graphic and paragraph,
here's what San Diego looks like at the detail level on our US
Golf Markets Strength Scorecard deliverable:
small chart
What you can see is that:
* San Diego is a sizeable market (#23 in the US)
*
*
It gets above-average marks for all 5 of the Strength
metrics
Its " best metric " is the golf density supporting its
(limited) supply
* Its weakest metric is the 5-yr projected population
growth rate (real estate and expense-constrained;
the state of CA also isn't helping with some of their
governance challenges IMO)
So that brings us full circle back to the question of whether
SoCal is the most golf-starved major metro in the US. While we
didn't do the analysis at county-level, which was my colleague's
point-of-reference, I did go look at the LA " sister market " and
it ranks 13th in strength so there likely is reasonable support, in
our quantitative approach, to say that, combined, SoCal likely
is one of, if not the, strongest (the alter-ego of golf-starved) US
markets for golf. On the other hand, if someone wants to debate
whether there are other " shadow markets " outside of SoCal
that are stronger and running more efficiently than the counties
comprising LA and San Diego, you've now got facts and specific
names to refute that assertion (ha, ha).
PS - in a shameless plug, if you want the detailed figures for
all 207 US golf markets, it's part of our Pellucid Publications
membership (not sold separately):
* Become a Pellucid Publications Member (PPM),
available in either National (industry stakeholders)
or Local (facility owner/operators) versions - $495
annual, provides all Pellucid publications (27 reports,
combination of monthly updates and annual reports)
* Our PPM subscribers are always the first to receive
any new reports, the monthly weather impact results
etc. (they've had the rankings for over a week already
so you're only slightly behind) if you want to be in the
industry knowledge vanguard
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
9
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The Pellucid Perspective - July 2024

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