The Pellucid Perspective - August 2024 - 12

WEATHER
IMPACT
JULY
Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N
July Delivers
3rd Consecutive
" Downer "
A
fter hope that July would be the trend reversal month that
needed to support our year-end (still) positive comparative
forecast, we took another blow as GPH registered -4%
which keeps the Year-to-Date (YtD) in negative territory at -3%.
We're now past the midway mark both calendar and rounds-wise
(latter is 59% of year based on multi-year " norm " ). The YtD regional
breadth metric slipped into negative at a 1:2 ratio comprised
of 13 favorable regions vs. 22 unfavorables and 10 in the
neutral zone (+/- 2%). You can get that full picture monthly in
multiple ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
* Subscribe to the Golf Market Research Center (facility
level, portal access, includes access to both Cognilogic
(historical Capacity Rds) and Foresight (60 day forecast
Capacity Rounds)
National Played Rounds for June as published by Golf
Datatech were +1% at the All Facilities level. The +1% figure
would say " flat " to industry observers relying solely on rounds
change trends. It's only when you add in incredibly unfavorable
weather impact (-9% reported last month) and look at
the Utilization figure that you realize the +1% was amazing
meaning golfers continue to play around/in spite of weather
conditions that in the 2010's scared them off. Hence, the key
barometer of Utilization registered 67% for the month (+6 pts)
and, for the YtD, 63% (+2 pts).
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, " Based on this
summer's 3 month results, I'm going to start referring to the
post-COVID golfers as the Timex brigade, " They take a licking
but keep on ticking (playing) " . I really had expected a +24%
GPJ result for July based on anecdotal observations as well
as the low odds of having 3 consecutive down months (I guess
that's why we use math to do this and not intuition or the
media/weather event reporting). Looking at the map for the
current month (left hand arrows), the key regions of OH Valley
12 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S
C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
So
CA Coast
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
South, TX Central, SE Coast South and Great Lakes Central
saw favorability that bucked the national result. Looking at
the YtD (right hand arrows), all 3 Great Lakes regions are " in
the green " along with OH Valley South and TX Central. The
" early return " July submissions from our Golf Market Research
Center (GMRC) subscribers for Rounds, Golf Revenue and
Rate Card suggest that they held their own vs. the weather
but didn't beat it meaning our Utilization gain streak is flattening
out. In addition to knowing their weather-adjusted
performance, our GMRC subscribers also have visibility into
the summarized portfolio of participants and a limited number
of markets to reference whether their performance is pacing,
leading or lagging the GMRC portfolio universe; you could
too (hint, hint). "
August 2024

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Regl-Key-Mkts-Weather-Impact-Subscription-c130513021 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Weather-Services-c60126191 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/golf-market-research-center

The Pellucid Perspective - August 2024

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