The Pellucid Perspective - January 2025 - 2

YEAR-END REVIEW
2024 Ends " Sneaky Long " on Rounds
By Jim Koppenhaver
Y
ou know that guy you've never played with before who, on
the 1st tee, with an odd swing and no warm-up, unexpectedly
cranks out a drive that's 20 yards longer than yours?
" Fluke " you say to yourself until...he does it again on holes 2, 3
and 5 (only reason not on #4 is it's a Par 3, ha, ha). Coming into
'24 I didn't have any great expectations for demand (rounds); we
easily cleared the modern-era record last year (+2M rounds) so
the bar to beat was already set high, we didn't have any macro
trend tailwinds (we still aren't doing Customer Relationship
Management to any degree which would give the capability
to encourage golfers to higher levels at our course) although
the weather impact forecast was pretty sunny (+5% Golf Playable
Hours (GPH) vs. '23). As the months' results rolled in via
our Golf Market Research Center subscribers' submissions for
Rounds, Golf Revenue and Rate, they slightly but consistently
beat my expectations all the while the GPH figures pointed to
something less than +5% by year end.
We began to make the call back in September that the math
in favor of breaking last year's national record for rounds (520M)
was increasingly in our favor. By October, based on the GMRC
portfolio's results, we had our hopes pinned on hitting 525M
which would mean not only growth to another record but (dare
we say it?) an accelerating growth rate in successive years. When
the November figures rolled in, we missed, by a fraction, hitting
the '23 total year number which only left " the December variable "
which would determine the new record and increment (see
last month's Perspective article for support) but...weather.
For the Pellucid faithful who are tuned into our channel, you
2 The Pellucid PersPecTive
already know that the December national weather impact came
in at -23%, the equivalent of a Grinch who stole Christmas,
which closed the year at -2% GPH. Based on our " preview "
of the GMRC subscribers results, net of weather in their geography,
it (unsurprisingly) suggests that we'll be down doubledigits
on rounds for the month on a national basis but it won't
match the 20%+ decline in GPH. Again, the Pellucid faithful
will immediately recognize that what I'm saying is that Utilization
actually went up in December meaning we did better than
expected given the gale force headwind by Mother Nature. The
preview represents ~65% of our subscribers submitting in the
first week following the month close and then the remainder
of subscribers are usually " in " by mid-month so we'll see what
type of " bounce " we get but it typically is moderately close to the
preview sample so the " call " here may be off by 1M or so (0.2%).
If the above indicators and our projection math hold up, when
we gather in Orlando later this month for the 22nd consecutive
State of the Industry presentation you're likely to see the following
two performance levels in that sea of data that you've come
to know and love:
* Annual rounds will eclipse 530M (first-time ever, unless
someone digs up a credible pre-2000 figure and source)
* Utilization at or above 70% (another first, no viable
challenge there, this measure didn't exist pre-Pellucid/
Edgehill)
This invariable begs the question from our followers, " What
January 2025
PHOTO BY COURTNEY COOK ON UNSPLASH
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2025

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