IEEE Electrification Magazine - June 2014 - 62
and 7-8% of global total GhG emissions. the majority of
emissions within the transport sector are produced by lightweight vehicles [cars, sport-utility vehicles (suVs), and pickups], representing 58.7% out of the total. thus, reducing GhG
emissions in these vehicles would significantly contribute to
the health of the environment at a global level.
the above-mentioned arguments present a clear motivation to introduce electric vehicles (eVs) to more people
and to promote their adoption among drivers. eVs, in the
form of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (pheVs) or battery
eVs (BeVs), offer significant benefits in improving energy
efficiency, reducing emissions of pollutants and GhGs, and
reducing petroleum dependency, when compared with
conventional vehicles (CVs). however, a challenging question remains: how economically attractive are eVs from a
consumer's perspective? (see Figure 3.) the main challenge
limiting the adoption of eVs is their current high purchasing cost. the cost of the electric battery in these cars
accounts for 35-45% of the total cost of manufacturing the
car, depending on the battery's size. Currently, the battery
cost ranges from us$500 to us$800/kWh, and it is expected
to drop to as low as us$200-us$300/kWh by 2020. this
makes the current eV cost as high as double that of a CV. at
the same time, it has been reported that the energy cost of
driving eVs is lower than that of driving CVs. this has motivated us to conduct an economic analysis to determine
whether the economic savings and environmental benefits
offered by eVs are enough to recover the incremental premium of an eV relative to a CV within a reasonable time to
represent an attractive option for users.
in this article, we conduct an economic evaluation of
pheVs and BeVs compared with CVs, considering dynamic
electricity pricing schemes in our analysis. our comparative
study is based on real eV models currently found in the
vehicle market, and we present a case study considering
California as the geographic location. the main contributions of this article can be summarized as follows.
xx
the impact of dynamic electricity pricing schemes in
the analysis is considered. dynamic pricing schemes,
such as time-of-use (tou) and real-time pricing (rtp),
are expected to be commonly implemented by utilities
as part of demand response strategies in future electric
grids (smart grids). thus, considering their impact on
economic analysis of eVs is relevant, although very few
studies in the literature have considered it.
xx
a case study for the adoption of eVs in California is
presented. We analyze multiple scenarios, considering
fuel price trends, different electricity prices and pricing schemes, and different vehicle types. all of these
are based on real data collected in California.
xx
the vehicle's full life-cycle analysis (well to wheel) in
our environmental impact evaluation of eVs and CVs
is considered. the real environmental benefits of eVs
in terms of GhG and pollutant gas emission reduction
are relative to the energy generation mix of the region
evaluated. thus, an accurate environmental impact
62
I E E E E l e c t r i f i c ati o n M agaz ine / j un e 2014
analysis should consider not only tailpipe Co2 emissions but also well-to-wheel emissions. Figure 4
shows the concept of well-to-wheel analysis.
Assumptions
our economic evaluation of eVs is subject to the following
assumptions.
xx
our economic evaluation of eVs has not considered the
cost of maintenance for the vehicles studied. the literature regarding eVs suggests that the maintenance costs
of eVs tend to be lower than those of CVs, provided that
the battery unit of the eVs does not require replacement during the lifetime of the vehicle. if the electric
battery in an eV must be replaced, the total cost of
ownership will dramatically increase. thus, eVs would
be unlikely to become attractive for users.
xx
We have assumed a constant annual inflation rate of 2.5%
in the united states. the real values may change every
year, traditionally fluctuating between 1.0% and 3.5%.
xx
the driving patterns are based on in-city driving during working days. long-distance journeys (longer than
100 mi) on highways have not been considered.
Nomenclature
xx
PHEV-a hybrid eV that contains a battery storage sys-
tem to power the vehicle as well as an internal combustion engine (iCe) that allows the vehicle to travel
using a gasoline-powered engine once the battery has
been depleted. the common notation to describe
pheVs is pheVx, where x refers to the distance range (in
miles) the vehicle is expected to drive in electric mode.
xx
BEV-a vehicle fully powered by an electric battery,
without any iCe.
xx
Carbon intensity-the intensity of Co2 emissions
resulting from electricity generation, quantified as the
number of grams of Co2 emitted per kilowatt hour
generated.
xx
Well to wheel-a term used in the automotive lifecycle analysis that includes energy companies' (oil or
electricity) activities and all the operations of converting the energy from raw sources to the form of fuel or
electricity to be provided to the tanks or batteries of
the vehicles to drive.
xx
TOU-an electricity pricing scheme in which the price
of the electricity varies at different hours of the day,
grouped into bands according to peak, midpeak, and
off-peak periods.
xx
RTP-a dynamic pricing scheme in which electricity
price varies hourly or subhourly all year long.
Case Study: California
Vehicle Considerations
For our economic evaluation, we considered a total of four
vehicles classified as compact cars of similar characteristics
and sizes. this includes a pheV40 based on the specifications
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