IEEE Electrification Magazine - June 2014 - 78

viewpoint

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majority of adopters now coming onto
typically the result of a very large
the market, at least in Europe, such
number of small, incremental
that full adoption is around the corner.
improvements. Such a pattern should
Another observation is that EV/
not generate a sudden upswing in
HEV penetration has experienced
HEV/EV penetration but simply fuel
various significant swings in its
the steady, relatively slow growth of
history, perhaps more
the HEV/EV market
so than other techpenetration S-curve.
Perhaps in the next
nologies. in the late
Batteries, however, are
few years, renewed
1960s, it was because
much more critical.
concerns about global
of smog in california;
Although the Prius
in the 1970s, due to
was a success without
warming will generate
oil embargoes; in the
lithium-ion batteries,
another round of
1990s, because of
it is doubtful we
government funding
zero-emission manwould have the Tesla
and a new significant
dates; more recently,
or the Volt without
when people realthis chemistry. yet,
upswing.
ized the Toyota Prius
battery durability and,
was here to stay.
therefore, life cost still
what causes such
need to reach a suffiswings? i see three basic elements:
cient level to fully open the gate of EV/
societal concerns, mostly high or
HEV technology acceptance.
fluctuating energy prices and enviwhere are we now? i have the feelronmental issues; government funding that we are coming out of a mini
ing; and technology. The first two are
swing, caused by market adoption of
actually not really independent facthe Prius and the introduction of the
tors, as governments often react to
lithium-ion battery, coinciding with
energy and environmental concerns,
the general acceptance of the threat
such that the former follows and
from global warming as well as relaamplifies the latter.
tively high gasoline prices. The latter
Technology can either fuel an
two generated significant government
upswing or, when immature, serve as
funding across the globe, altogether
a damper to slow it down. in the last
creating a bubble of enthusiasm not
two to three decades, the fundamenunusual for this popular technology.
tal underlying technologies buttressnow, public funding has decreased,
ing HEV and EV development have
with the notable exception of china,
been: 1) computing power, which has
slowing or even bursting that bubble.
made it possible to manage the
So we are now back to the underlyincredible complexity of smoothly
ing curve, the very slow but relentless
integrating an electric motor with an
electrification of vehicles. we will coninternal combustion engine; 2) power
tinue that progress one step at a time,
electronics, with enabled drive miniamostly from patient incremental
turization and effective control; and 3)
improvements and cost reductions.
new battery technology. computing
Perhaps, in the next few years,
power is now sufficiently advanced
renewed concerns about global warmand widely adopted so as not to be a
ing, currently somewhat subdued, will
factor in the further penetration of
generate another round of governHEVs and EVs. Power electronics and
ment funding and a new significant
motors, on the other hand, still need
upswing. or, finally, battery technology
to come down in price for a broader
will have shown its capacity to power
acceptance of these vehicles. This kind
a car at a reasonable cost, including a
of progress, however critical, is
life expectancy at least commensurate

I E E E E l e c t r i f i cati o n M agaz ine / J UN E 2014

with that of the vehicle. This may well
be the real tipping point from which
we will have smooth sailing to our
destination, where vehicle powertrains will be mostly electric.

Reference
[1] E. M. rogers, Diffusion of Innovations,
5th ed. new york: Free Press, 2003.

Biographies
Bruno Lequesne (Bruno.lequesne@
ieee.org) received his first degree in
France from Ecole Supérieure
d'Electricité in 1978 and his Ph.D.
degree in electrical engineering from
the Missouri University of Science and
Technology in 1984. He then joined
general Motors research Laboratories
and, later on in 1999, Delphi research
Labs, when Delphi corporation was
spun off from general Motors. At both
organizations, he conducted research
in automotive electromechanical systems. in 2006, he moved to Delphi's
Advanced Powertrain Engineering
organization as a group manager.
After a brief stint with the University
of Alabama's center for Advanced
Vehicle Technologies, he joined Eaton
corporation's corporate research and
Technology in 2010 to develop programs in the hybrid and transportation
electrification fields. He recently (2014)
went out on his own as a consultant,
forming E-Motors consulting, LLc, in
Menomonee Falls, wisconsin, for the
design of electromagnetic devices and,
electrical machines and for the electrification of transportation. He holds 48
U.S. patents, with more pending, and
authored or coauthored 20 papers in
refereed journals. He is the recipient of
ten best paper awards, seven from the
iEEE industry Applications Society (iAS)
and three from the Society of Automotive Engineers. He was elected an iEEE
Fellow in 1997 and received the Kliman
innovator Award from the iEEE iAS in
2007. He is also past president (2011-
2012) of the iEEE iAS.

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Electrification Magazine - June 2014