IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 44

policies and the scenarios at the European level. Finally, a
three-step, top-down approach was developed to quantify the
five e-Highway2050 scenarios (see Figure 9).

according to the scenarios. In step 1, no country or national
considerations were taken into account. Only perspectives pertaining to all of Europe were considered.

Step 1

Step 2

The process started with the computation of yearly demand
values and energy targets per generation technology at the panEuropean level. The installed capacities were defined in each of
several "macro areas" (see Figure 9), based on weighting distribution keys that combined information about the potential of generation capacities and demand in a given macro area. The weights
of the distribution keys were scenario-dependent. For example,
in the S1 scenario (large-scale RES), the weight assigned to the
wind potential was more important than that for the demand. In
the S5 scenario (small and local), it was the opposite.
Then a system simulation for all of Europe without considering internal grid constraints allowed tuning the installed
capacities and storage so as to reach a sufficient level of adequacy and improve the imbalances among the macro areas

In step 2, priority was given to pan-European perspectives,
but national policies and trends were also considered in
splitting the installed capacities of a macro area among its
countries. The installed capacities of each macro area were
broken down at the country level, for which 33 European
countries were considered (those in the ENTSO-E area).
The weighting distribution keys used in going from the
macro level to the country level were derived by combining
information about potential generation capacities, demand, policies, and trends in each country. Particular attention was paid to
the National Renewable Energy Action Plan for 2020, which
provides an RES target for each European country. These plans
set minimal RES values to be reached in each scenario for 2050.
Then, as in the previous step, system simulation was performed for all of Europe, without
considering internal grid constraints,
to provide the installed capacities
and storage for a sufficient level of
adequacy and to improve the imbalances among the countries according to the scenarios.

Step 3
Here the installed capacity generation values were distributed across
each country. The weighting distribution keys used combined information about potential generation
capacities, demand, and local constraints such as cities, mountains,
and protected natural areas.
Finally, for each scenario, the
installed capacities can be viewed
at different geographical levels
and from the following perspectives (see Figures 10 and 11):
✔ the imbalances, which are
the ratio of yearly generation
over yearly demand
✔ the energy mixes
✔ the installed capacities.

The System Simulation
UK

Countries with Several
Clusters

figure 8. Final pan-European cluster model.
44

ieee power & energy magazine

Remaining Countries
(Each with One Cluster)
Unconsidered Regions
External Clusters

As described above, a clustering
model was developed to make simulation easier. Each cluster includes
information about the load and the
installed generation capacities for
each technology. Between adjacent
clusters, a transmission capacity
january/february 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015