IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - March/April 2022 - 27

While incentives for load reduction are high,
there is no certainty in emergency programs since the number
or duration of events in a year is unpredictable.
As recently as April, May, and July 2021, a state of emergency
was declared in 50 California counties due to severe
drought conditions, In June and July 2021, a state of emergency
was also declared due to extreme heat events across
the western United States. As a result of the drought and
heat events, over 1,000 megawatts of capacity were lost
when the low water levels in reservoirs hindered the use of
hydroelectric power plants. Another 4,000 megawatts could
not be imported into California from the Pacific Northwest
when the Bootleg fire in Oregon shut down a major
transmission corridor. As seen in recent years, prolonged
elevated temperatures result in increased system demand,
requiring the dispatch of marginal generating units (many of
which are inefficient, older, and unable to handle the stress
of high operating temperatures), and resulting in extremely
high peak energy prices. It also increases stress on the T&D
grid due to congestion, increases line losses, and reduces the
lines' carrying capacity.
Addressing the impacts of climate change events and
mitigation strategies comes with a high cost to the electrical
T&D system. In a 2018 report on the impact of climate
change on the California electric grid, the CEC indicated
that outages due to wildfire may cause up to US$9 million
in transmission costs and US$61 million in distribution costs
annually by midcentury. California utilities need to be prepared
for increased financial uncertainty due to wildfires in
the future.
Regulators have taken significant actions to mitigate
the worst impacts of climate change on grid operations.
In response to record wildfires in 2017 and 2018, regulators
instituted the PSPS program for the summer of 2019,
which proactively deenergized circuits for extended periods.
While PSPS events have become less frequent, of
shorter duration, and enacted within smaller geographic
areas, these events continue to this day and are expected
to continue for years to come. These events not only
disrupt people's lives but also impact businesses' ability
to operate unless they invest in backup generators,
microgrids, or energy storage equipment capable of operating
in island mode.
Based on current statewide planning models, forecasted
short-term supply shortfalls of 5 GW and medium-term
shortfalls of nearly 12 GW support the need for rapid deployment
of DERs in NWA applications to bridge this supply
gap. For NWAs to contribute significantly to the supply portfolio,
changes are required to current planning processes to
account for the full value that can be contributed by NWAs,
march/april 2022
which can be deployed more quickly, efficiently, and incrementally
than conventional generation.
Consequences of Adaptation
to Climate Change Impacts
One of the consequences of the PSPS program is that a large
number of new fossil-fueled generators have been installed in
recent years by facility owners to maintain operations during
grid outages. According to a 2021 report by MCubed, there
was an estimated 34% increase in backup diesel generation
capacity from 2018 to 2021 in the South Coast Air Basin,
and a 22% increase from 2020 to 2021 in the nine county
Bay Area, totaling approximately 12 GW of capacity, which
is equivalent to nearly 15% of California's generation fleet.
Nearly all newly installed backup generation is diesel-fueled,
and this is expected to increase over the coming years. Not
only does the increased diesel generation capacity work
against California's RPS targets and greenhouse gas (GHG)
reduction goals, but this proliferation of diesel generator
installations also highlights a major opportunity for clean
energy technology NWAs to provide resiliency value.
The increase in backup generator installations and
use also highlights the delicate balance between the need
for increased grid resiliency and climate change mitigation
efforts, such as the RPS mandating clean energy
generation targets. The RPS/GHG goals versus. the need
for increased grid resiliency issue came to light during
the rulemaking process for the ELRP and the California
State Emergency Program launched in mid-2021. While
backup generators had previously been allowed to operate
for only emergency backup and required test events, they
were considered " prohibited resources " and not allowed
to participate in DR programs or dispatches. The final
decision order for the ELRP allowed prohibited resources
to participate in emergency events, followed by a similar
approval in the executive order establishing the California
State Emergency Program.
Climate change mitigation strategies will also have a significant
impact on the electrical grid as homes and buildings
rapidly deploy electrification measures, such as chillers,
water heaters, and electric vehicles, in support of all-electric
buildings initiatives and in response to bans on natural gas
service in new buildings in some jurisdictions. Increased
building electrification and electric vehicle charging loads
will significantly increase the state's peak load, which will
require tripling the current electrical grid system capacity
as well as overall energy consumption in the state according
ieee power & energy magazine
27
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - March/April 2022

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