IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - May/June 2022 - 88

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Electric System Reliability
I read with interest the many good articles
about renewable energy integration
in the November/December issue
of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine
(P&E). As a Member of IEEE with
more than 40 years of experience in
utility planning in the Midwest, I have
dedicated my career to electric system
reliability. During 28-30 January 2020,
the Midcontinent Independent System
Operator (MISO) experienced a wind
drought, when wind output dropped
to less than 1% of nameplate capacity
for 39 h. The question is, how would
MISO supply its load under a future
scenario if such a wind drought were to
occur again? Consider the following (in
addition to reduced wind output):
✔ little or no solar output (shorter
daylight hours, low sun angle,
snow-covered panels, and cloudy
weather)
✔ exhausted battery storage
✔ increased load due to additional
electric heat load
✔ reduced imports from other regions
facing similar conditions.
A winter wind drought would be the
Achilles' heel of electric system reliability
with high renewable penetration.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2022.3150812
Date of current version: 19 April 2022
ieee power & energy magazine
Editor's Note
For more discussion of system reliability and potential problems with high-renewable
penetration, please see the March/April 2021 issue of IEEE P&E Magazine devoted
to the topic of energy insecurity.
Steven Widergren,
Editor-in-Chief
Because such a wind drought happened
last year, a similar occurrence is likely
to happen again. A future wind drought
could lead to the simultaneous loss of
several tens of thousands of megawatts
of wind capacity. At the same time, solar
capacity may also be reduced due to
less available solar energy during the
winter and snow-covered solar panels
in at least the northern tier of states. All
this may occur at a time when winter
demand may be high due to additional
heating load and, in the future, additional
electric vehicle charging.
Such a wind drought could not only
affect MISO but also the Southwest
Power Pool and PJM (an independent
system operator in the United States)
as well. The loss of this much capacity
over an extended period of time could
cause energy storage to be exhausted
and lead to a widespread blackout of
a large portion of the Eastern Interconnection.
Such a blackout would be
catastrophic, not only in terms of loss
of life but also economic impact.
I realize the political winds are to
advance renewables, but even a " copper
sheet " transmission system could
not save the system from an extensive
wind drought as there would likely
be insufficient reserve capacity in the
Eastern Interconnection to make up for
this tremendous loss of capacity.
IEEE should also present articles
that focus on system reliability and real-world
potential problems associated
with high renewables penetration.
-Karl Kohlrus
Guest Editor's Response
Yes, there may be times when there are
lower levels of wind or solar generation
than demand. Demand will be higher
in the future with increased electrification,
and we need to study future scenarios
with weather data to understand
the impacts and potential mitigations.
A new National Renewable Energy
Laboratory study examines this. Weather
systems tend to be approximately
1,000-3,000 km in size. So whether it is
an extreme weather event or an extended
period of low wind and solar, the transmission
needed to provide increased
(continued on p. 90)
may/june 2022
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - May/June 2022

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