2040-2044 2035-2039 2030-2034 2025-2029 2020-2024 "Commissioned" "Under Construction" Projects figure 10. A scenario tree capturing possible paths of future offshore wind deployment in the North Seas. The yellow balloons indicate development status of offshore wind projects used to build each scenario (e.g., in scenario 1, it is assumed that all wind projects currently classified as commissioned, under construction, and permit granted are deployed by 2020). S4 20 19 18 17 16 9 GW Second Epoch Investment 20 GW Third Epoch Investment 30 GW Fourth Epoch Investment 40 GW Fifth Epoch Investment 50 GW S3 15 14 13 12 Third Epoch Investment 15 GW Second Epoch Investment 36 GW 7 6 Second Epoch Investment 53 GW 20 GW First Epoch Investment ieee power & energy magazine 11 8 57 GW Fourth Epoch Investment 78 GW Fifth Epoch Investment 100 GW S2 10 Fourth Epoch Investment 86 GW Third Epoch Investment 3 2 1 9 119 GW 4 Fifth Epoch Investment 150 GW S1 5 204 GW Fifth Epoch Investment 25 GW Second Epoch Investment 88 GW Third Epoch Investment 150 GW Fourth Epoch Investment 175 GW All Projects Are Commissioned "Commissioned" "Under Construction" "Permit Granted" Projects 72 that optimizes investment in the first stage under four potential future scenarios, would involve the development of assets that create future options and are not built under any single scenario optimization (that does not consider occurrence of alternative scenarios). In other words, this min-max model can identify the optimal investment strategy that is not based on investment schedules determined by individual (deterministic) scenario models. We demonstrate that the benefits of endogenously optimizing min-max regret based investment would deliver additional savings between €1 billion and €5 billion per decision-making period (in this study five years) even if significant volumes of offshore wind fail to materialize. Interestingly, we observe that these additional cost savings are achieved through the construction of offshoreto-offshore links aimed at providing flexibility to deal with uncertainty, through integrating offshore wind clusters while enabling further cross-border transfers between North Seas countries as shown in Figure 12. Other Aspects of Transmission Arrangements on Future System Costs TSO Incentives The majority of the Great Britain TSOs revenue is based on their RAV. As has been widely reported in literature, historically there has been a tendency (supported by the RAV-based july/august 2015