IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2015 - 88

history

Roy Billinton and Kelvin Chu

early evolution of LOLP
evaluating generating capacity requirements

THIS ARTICLE FOCUSES ON the
early application of probability methods in the evaluation of generating
capacity adequacy and reserve capacity requirements in an electric power
system. The primary objective is to illustrate the evolution of the loss of load
probability (LOLP) from a concept to a
numerical system index that has been
widely accepted as a system standard
for over 50 years. The observations in
this article are supported by the "Bibliography on Application of Probability
Methods in the Evaluation of Generating Capacity Requirements," presented
by Roy Billinton at the IEEE Winter
Power Meeting in New York, New
York, 30 January-4 February 1966
and designated as Conference Paper
No. 31 CP 66-62.
The bibliography consists of 96 technical papers published between 1933
and 1966 and are arranged in chronological order. The reference numbers
used in this article are the paper numbers in the bibliography, and the paper
citations in this article follow the format, style, and punctuation used in the
1966 bibliography. The authors of the
papers came from a wide range of organizations. Their company affiliations
are provided to illustrate the wide industrial participation in the thought process
that culminated in the acceptance of an
LOLP of one day in ten years as an industry standard.

Since the launch of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, most of the articles appearing in the "History" column have dealt with significant technological developments in electric power equipment and systems and with the remarkable engineers and scientists who brought them about. This article, by Roy Billinton and
Kelvin Chu, represents a change of pace as it chronicles the early evolution of
the application of probability theory and methods and statistical techniques in
the evaluation of electric power system generating capacity and reserve capacity requirements. From 1933 to 1966, many talented engineers representing a
broad spectrum of backgrounds and organizations contributed to the development and acceptance of the consensus that is the subject of this article.
Roy Billinton earned B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees from the University of Manitoba and Ph.D. and D.Sc. degrees from the University of Saskatchewan. He joined
the University of Saskatchewan in 1964 after working in the System Planning
and Production Division of Manitoba Hydro. He was the head of the Electrical
Engineering Department in the College of Engineering, associate dean, and acting dean and is currently a distinguished professor emeritus. Dr. Billinton is an
IEEE Life Fellow, a foreign member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, and a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and the Canadian Academy of
Engineering. His area of research is power system reliability, economics, and
performance. Dr. Billinton has served on many IEEE Power & Energy Society
committees and other industry committees.
Kelvin Chu earned B.Sc., M.Sc., and Ph.D. degrees from the University of
Saskatchewan. After teaching at Clarkson University in 1989, he joined Manitoba Hydro as the reliability section head in 1990. He later held senior positions
at the U.S. Northwest National Laboratory, Bell Telephone Laboratories, and
ConEdison of New York. He is currently a principal engineer in the General
Electric Energy Consulting Group. His area of research is in power system reliability, load forecasting, and reliability assessment of next-generation telecommunications networks. Dr. Chu is a Senior Member of IEEE and is the newly
appointed secretary of the IEEE LOLE Working Group.
We welcome Roy Billinton and Kelvin Chu as our guest history coauthors for
this issue of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine.
-Carl Sulzberger
Associate Editor, History

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2015.2417475
Date of publication: 25 June 2015

ieee power & energy magazine

july/august 2015

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2015