IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 30

Installed Capacity in Gwel

100

100
80
60

0
2020

Power to Fuel
Methanation
Electrolysis

2030

(a)

2040

2050

0
2020

2030

(b)

2040

2050

0
2020

2030

(c)

2040

2050

figure 5. The annual development of the installed capacity of technologies for the production of synthetic fuels: (a) 80%
reduction, (b) 90% reduction, and (c) 95% reduction.

These fuels become essential for the decarbonization of those
energy consumers in the energy system, where a complete
technological reorientation may be hard to achieve under
today's economic and political structures (for example, aviation or some industrial processes).

Consumption Sectors

Heating
Technologies in Millions

figure 6 illustrates the scenario development of heating
technologies for space heating and domestic hot water supply. While the total number of heating technologies is
directly linked to the exogenously set number of buildings
in germany (boundary condition), the share of each technology is a result of the cost optimization. note that every
heating technology can be supplemented by hot water storage with solar heating and an electric heating rod.
While gas and oil boilers clearly dominate today's heating technologies (approximately 70% of all installations),
their share decreases in all three scenarios. The resulting
level of reduction is directly linked to the considered Co2reduction target. Concretely, in 2050 the share of oil and gas

boilers amounts to 21% for an 80% Co2 reduction target,
9% for a 90% Co2 reduction target, and roughly 4% for 95%
Co2 reduction target.
electrical heat pumps exhibit the opposite trend. Their
number increases when considering more ambitious climate
protection goals. The results show that, in the third scenario
(−95% energy-related Co2 emissions), electrical heat pumps
(air or brine) account for almost half of the heating technologies in the energy system. These technologies bring two main
advantages for the overall energy system. first, their coefficient of performance allows an advantageous ratio between
the required energy for operation and the provided heat
(for detailed model analysis on heat pumps, see sterchele
et al. 2017 in the "for further reading" section). This benefit
in efficiency contributes to the decarbonization of the lowtemperature heat supply. second, electrical heat pumps can
be operated flexibly to balance the residual load in times of
renewable production surpluses (negative residual load), for
example, to charge thermal storage technologies. as shown
for other power conversion technologies, here the need for

0
2020

2030

2040

2050

0
2020

(a)
CHP + Fuel Cell
Electric Heat Pump (Air, Brine)

2030

2040
(b)

Gas Heat Pump
Biomass Boiler

2050

0
2020

2030

2040

2050

figure 6. The annual development of heating technologies for space heating and domestic hot water supply. Heating
grids are considered as a combination of CCGT, electrical heat pumps, gas boilers, thermal storage, and solar thermal
technology. (a) 80% reduction, (b) 90% reduction, and (c) 95% reduction.
30

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july/august 2018

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