IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 37

is key to delivering the full benefits of electrification. second, low-carbon options exist for electricity generation, with
multiple studies suggesting the feasibility of replacing conventional electricity sources with low or zero-carbon alternatives such as renewable energy, nuclear, and fossil fuel
combined with carbon capture and sequestration. although
the cost of such a transition and composition of the leastcost generation portfolio remains very much in debate,
this suite of available low-emissions technology options
provides alternatives to today's electricity mix. other lowemission alternatives to conventional technologies that are
not directly electricity based, such as hydrogen, biofuels,
and natural gas (such as natural gas-fueled vehicles), also
exist and are being developed.
Beyond potentially reducing energy-related emissions,
electrification can also offer other important social and economic benefits such as reduced air pollution-related health
and environmental impacts, lower water demand, increased
productivity and resilience, increased flexibility and controllability of services like induction cooking or ductless airsourced heat pumps, reduced reliance on imported oil and natural gas, and a greater opportunity to export these increasingly
abundant fuels. of course, there are also potential negative
impacts such as higher capital costs, particularly associated with new infrastructure investments, greater exposure to cybersecurity risks, and reduced economic activity
in the fuel production sectors. electrification can substantially shape energy-system infrastructure development and
consumption, which would affect a variety of stakeholders
including electric utility planners, equipment manufacturers,
fuel producers, building developers, and regulatory decision
makers. Due to these potential widespread impacts as well as
the emissions motivations described earlier, further research
on the possibilities for and the costs, benefits, and impacts of
widespread electrification is warranted.
in this article we present a preliminary analysis that examines widespread electrification in the u.s. energy sector. our
analysis heavily leverages previous work published by researchers at the nrel in 2017 (presented in the "For Further reading" section), which includes additional background material,
descriptions, and references. in this research, we apply an
exploratory scenario analysis approach under which electrification is rapidly advanced across all end-use sectors and estimate the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on
load patterns, the evolution of the u.s. power system, and co2
emissions. We also highlight our methodological approach, its
shortcomings, ongoing work to address these shortcomings,
and anticipated remaining research gaps.

Electrification Definition,
Opportunities, and Technologies
We define electrification narrowly as the adoption of electric-based technologies to replace technologies that are currently fueled by nonelectric sources, typically fossil fuels, but
also including other energy sources or carriers. this definijuly/august 2018

tion excludes projected second-order increases in electricity
demands brought about by new or increasing service demands,
such as new plug loads, the expansion of data centers, or
increased indoor agriculture. instead, our definition focuses
on existing services, such as driving, heating, and materials
processing, which are currently being served by other energy
sources or carriers. our prospective analysis also examines the
electrification of projected increases in these service demands
through population growth and other factors.
using this definition and historical data for energy use
and emissions, we identify opportunities where electrification can potentially have the biggest impact. Figure 1 shows
that 2015 energy consumption and emissions are not spread
uniformly across sectors and subsectors, and indicates the
extent to which reliance on electricity varies significantly
across sectors. in particular, the buildings sector is already
heavily reliant on electricity (78 and 70% for commercial
and residential buildings, respectively, on a primary energy
basis) while electricity serves less than 1% of transportation-related energy consumption. industry is intermediate
between these extremes (32% based on primary energy).
emissions follow qualitatively similar trends. in the absence
of cost considerations, these observations suggest that the
electrification potential, and corresponding emissions-reduction
potential, is greatest in transportation relative to the other
economic sectors. existing research on electrification has
applied a greater focus on vehicle electrification than any
other end use. in recent years, interest in transportation electrification has also been motivated by declining battery costs
and increasing plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicle sales
and development.
Within each sector, electrification opportunities also vary
by subsector and end use. For example, on-road vehicles
are the source of about 80% of total transportation-related
energy use and emissions. in fact, light-duty vehicles (including cars and trucks) by themselves are responsible for the
majority of all transportation-related energy consumption
and emissions. For light-duty passenger vehicles, plug-in
hybrid and fully electric options are currently available with
increased sales, more model types, and heightened manufacturer interest in recent years. electric options for larger
commercial and freight uses are significantly more limited;
initial development in these sectors has also occurred, particularly in niche applications such as city buses and hightraffic corridors.
although electricity is used to the greatest extent in the
buildings sector overall, several end uses in buildings, such
as space and water heating, currently rely much more heavily on the direct combustion of natural gas or other fossil
fuels. recent improvements in electric air-source heat
pumps allow them to deliver heat efficiently even at relatively low outdoor temperatures (approaching -18 °c) and
may offer opportunities for more widespread use. split systems that have one or more condensers outside serving multiple interior air handlers can overcome building renovation
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