IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 56

225.0
205.0
185.0

Public, Residential,
and Commercial

Electricity
Generation

Land Use, Land-Use
Change, and Forestry

Transport
Industry

Waste
Agriculture

Balance

CO2e (Millions of t)

165.0
145.0
125.0
105.0
85.0
65.0
45.0
25.0

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2006

-15.0

2007

5.0

Year

figure 8. Baseline 2007 projection of sectorial participation in the national GHG inventory from 2006 to 2030, using the
medium-low scenario (source: MAPS Chile).

160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2007 2010
Diesel

2015

Natural Gas

2020
Year
Wind

Hydroelectric Run of River

2025
Biomass

2030
Coal

Hydroelectric Dam

figure 9. Electricity generation by source in the SIC power
system (source: MAPS Chile).
56

generation itself. the general temperature for the country as a
whole is predicted to rise by around 4 ºC by the end of the century,
and a significant reduction in glaciers is also expected. Figure 5
shows projections of significant precipitation reductions in the
region of Chile where most of the hydroelectric plants are located.
rainfall is forecast to fall by 30% in the central part of the country
during this period, with increases expected in the extreme northern and southern parts of the country.
a general decline in river flows for hydroelectric plants is
projected to occur as early as 2040. table 1 illustrates the effects
on electricity generation of the expected changes in precipitation

GWh

GWh

plants that depend on cycling periods of snow melt, as the melt
patterns will change, challenging water usage.
each hydroelectric plant is built taking into account historical changes in water flows, and its economic assessment
is very much based on them. For this reason, a change in
climatic conditions could affect existing hydro generation
systems as well as future projects, with water flows that may
be above or below historical patterns.
Various studies have been conducted in Chile on the impact
that climate change will have on the flow of the main river basins,
along with studies of the impact that will have on hydroelectric

ieee power & energy magazine

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2007 2010

2015
Diesel

2020
Year

2025

Natural Gas

Coal

2030

figure 10. Electricity generation by source in the SING
power system (source: MAPS Chile).
september/october 2014



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 2
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 96
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover4
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