IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - 46
The Use of
Probabilistic
Forecasts
Applying
Them in
Theory and
Practice
M
MUCH OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEM IS WEATHER
dependent; thus, our ability to forecast the weather contributes to its efficient and economical operation. Climatological forecasts of meteorological variables are used
for long-term planning, capturing changing frequencies of
extreme events, such as cold and hot periods, and identifying suitable locations for deploying new resources. Planning for fuel delivery and maintenance relies on subseasonal to seasonal forecasts. On shorter timescales of days,
the weather affects both energy demand and supply. Electrical load depends critically on weather because electricity
is used for heating and cooling. As more renewable energy
is deployed, it becomes increasingly important to understand how these energy sources vary with atmospheric conditions; thus, predictions are necessary for planning unit
commitments. On the scales of minutes to hours, shortterm nowcasts aid in the real-time grid integration of these
variable energy resources (VERs).
Meteorologists use the dynamical equations of fluid
motion to forecast the weather by numerically integrating those equations forward in time in numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models. The weather is both variable
and uncertain. Because the equations are nonlinear, they
are inherently chaotic. Thus, slight changes in initial or
boundary conditions, or changes to the representation of
physical processes, can lead to large changes in the forecasts. Meteorologists have learned to deal with the resulting uncertainty by providing probabilistic forecasts.
Varying degrees of uncertainty also exist in almost
all other parts of the electric system's operation, including the load forecast, the dynamic capacity of transmission lines, and unscheduled outages of nonvariable generators and transmission resources. Some of these are
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MPE.2019.2932639
Date of current version: 18 October 2019
46
ieee power & energy magazine
1540-7977/19©2019IEEE
november/december 2019
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019
Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - Contents
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - Cover4
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