IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020 - 60

extreme forecast errors for the residual demand r-esulting
from the prediction errors for the correlated PV generation
and the power demand in Kyushu creates an emerging risk

(¥/kWh)

to the supply security and a growing need for additional
reliable and affordable flexibility.
In extreme forecast error situations, the maximum use of
distributed resources, including PV
generation, wind power plants, and
45
demand response, is expected to
provide additional flexibility in the
Wind (Offshore)
form of virtual power plants. A vir40
Price Target for
tual power plant, which is a subset of
2030: ¥8-9 (Only
the distributed resources, can control
Bottom Fixed)
its output, such as active and reactive
35
power, as if it were a single power
plant. (Figure 23). Time-shifting
demand can also provide a comHydro (200~1,000 kW)
30
bination of upward and downward
Geothermal (~15 MW)
changes. In addition, within the range
accepted in advance by customers,
25
the curtailment of electricity demand
Solar (<10 kw)
Biomass (Wood Biomass, ~20 MW)
Price Target for
whose production is storable, such
Wind (Onshore)
2025: Market Price
20 Price Target for
as EV chargers and HPWHs, might
2030: ¥8-9
provide a good system service
resource to protect against inevitable
15
extreme forecast errors.
We made an 8,760-h producSolar (≥10 kw)
tion
cost analysis to predict the
Price Target for
10
2025: ¥7
effectiveness of smart charging
by 8.86 million EVs in 10 balancing areas of Japan in 2030,
5
according to the 2015 long-term
demand and supply outlook.
EVs were categorized into five
0
clusters based on their usage
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
patterns. Figure 24 gives the
(Fiscal Year)
results of the demand and supply analysis to minimize operafigure 21. The historical reduction of renewable energy FIT tariffs (US$1 = ¥107).
tional costs for smart charging
(Source: METI; used with permission.)

(For Emergency Use)
Installed
Capacity

(For Emergency Use)

Wind
Operating
Capacity

Step 2

Potential
Additional Capacity

Step 1

46 GW
Step 3

Solar PV
Thermal
(a)

Wind

Solar PV

Thermal

(b)

figure 22. The line capacity allocation under the Japanese Connect and Manage process. (a) The previous grid operation. (b) The new grid operation. Step 1: Perform a probabilistic evaluation of each generator. Step 2: Release the capacity
through intertripping in emergency conditions. Step 3: Obtain grid access without grid enhancement through the conditions of curtailment. (Source: METI; used with permission.)
60	

ieee power & energy magazine	

november/december 2020



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020 - Contents
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2020 - Cover3
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