IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - 32

Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Magnitude
(MWh)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2 46
Duration (h)
82 46
Duration (h)
82 46
Duration (h)
8
figure 2. A scatter plot of size, frequency, and duration of shortfall events by scenario. (Source: Telos Energy; used
with permission.)
It is too early to tell if entirely new metrics need to be
developed, but what is certain is that planners should extract
more information and details from the existing calculations.
Currently, many models can calculate hourly expected
Total Unplanned Outage Rate
During Recent Cold Weather Events
50
45
40
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
PJM
MISO
Jan. 2014 Jan. 2019
ERCOT
Feb. 2021
*Includes Forced Outages Plus Derates for
All Technology Types
figure 3. The total unplanned outages during recent cold
weather events. (Data sources: PJM, MISO, ERCOT.)
32
ieee power & energy magazine
Weather Driven
Outages;
3-4x Seasonal
Average
unserved energy (EUE), expected number of days with LOLE
or events, and expected number of shortfall hours. From
these, we can already calculate metrics that summarize the
size, frequency, and duration of shortfall events. Increased
use of EUE is a good first step, as it quantifies the expected
aggregate size (amount of energy) and duration of shortfall
events as opposed to only quantifying the probability or frequency
of one occurring.
However, EUE also has limitations. It still provides a
Expected
Winter Outage
Rate; Typically
Used in RA
Analysis
single average metric that cannot distinguish between the
individual events themselves. New metrics, improved utilization
of existing metrics, and visualizations must move
beyond expected values. They must provide information on
the distribution of events and provide emphasis on individual,
rather than aggregate, event characteristics. Relying on
multiple metrics and visualizations of the size, frequency,
duration, and timing of shortfall events will allow planners
to select mitigations and resources that are appropriately
sized to fit system needs identified and avoid under or overprocurement
of resources.
Take the three scenarios shown in Figure 2 for example.
It quantifies the number of shortfall events (represented
as a dot) for a single system simulated across three different
resource mixes with increasing reliance on ELRs for
reliability. Each resource mix has very different underlying
resources, but the same LOLE of 1-day-in-10 years
(same number of dots). However, despite the same LOLE,
the systems have very different risk profiles. An improperly
planned highly renewable grid may experience much
larger shortfall events than those for which we are used to
november/december 2021
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Capacity Out of Service (%)
Size (MW)
Frequency

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021

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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - Cover2
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