IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - 58

Study
Region
ENTSO-E's
TYNDP 2020
table 1. A summary of recent clean electricity studies.
Wind/Solar Capacity
Target
Europe (EU 28) ✔ 497-613 GW
(wind) 396-686
GW (solar)
direct use
✔ + 89-464 GW
(wind)
✔ 18-28 GW (solar)
[used for hydrogen
(H2) and derived
fuels]
NREL's
Interconnections
Seam Study
MIT study
MISO's RIIA
Vibrant Clean
Energy's
ZeroByFifty
United States
(except Texas)
and Canada
✔ 600-900 GW
(wind and solar)
United States ✔ 1,200 GW (wind)
✔ 1,100 GW (solar)
United States EI ✔ 411 GW (wind)
✔ 677 GW (solar)
United States ✔ 1,100 GW (wind)
✔ 1,000 GW (solar)
up to 100% clean
electricity
100% clean
electricity
up to 100% clean
electricity
100% clean
energy (including
100% clean
electricity)
4,900 TWh
5,000 TWh
2,623 TWh
9,000 TWh
2038
2040
Not
applicable
2050
75-78% clean
electricity (57-61%
wind/solar)
Annual Electricity Demand Target Year
2040
3,380-3,930 TWh
(direct use)
+
284-1,460 TWh (used for
H2 and derived fuels)
TYNDP: 10-Year Network Development Plan; ENTSO-E: European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity;
NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory; MISO: Midcontinent Independent System Operator; RIIA: Renewable
Integration Impact Assessment; EU: European Union.
This study employed the most detailed representation
of transmission facilities of the studies listed here. The
analyses included capacity expansion, loss-of-load expectation,
production cost, steady-state stability, and
dynamic stability.
✔ Vibrant Clean Energy's ZeroByFifty, which co-optimized
generation, transmission, storage, novel fuel
production, and DERs to decarbonize the United
States' energy economy by 2050. The existing transmission
topology, down to the 69-kV level, was used as
a starting point. A fully combined capacity expansion
and production cost model was utilized to compute the
least-cost system under various policy pathways.
Decarbonization Requires a Massive
Transformation of the Grid
Wind and solar photovoltaics (PVs) are the fastest-growing
generation resources in the United States, with approximately
200 GW of wind and solar now installed. But even
these huge strides in wind and solar deployment over the last
two decades have only increased the clean energy share of
electricity from 28 to 38% (the solid blue line in Figure 1).
This deployment pace (dashed blue line) will be insufficient
to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035 (dashed green line).
The scale of new clean energy resource deployment will
be even larger than indicated if significant electrification
occurs. Most of the decarbonization pathways studies call for
58
ieee power & energy magazine
the significant electrification of transportation, buildings, and
industry to replace current fossil energy uses with low-cost,
zero-carbon energy. Even if those end uses are made much
more energy efficient, electrification will materially increase
total electricity demand (defined here as grid-connected
demand, including that which is met by behind-the-meter
distributed generation). NREL's Electrification Futures Study
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
100% Clean Electricity
by 2035
38% Clean Electricity
in 2019
28% Clean Electricity
in 2001
figure 1. The clean share of U.S. electricity from 2001 to
2019 (solid blue line), projections to 2035 at the same rate
of clean electricity progress (dashed blue line), and projections
to 100% clean electricity by 2035 (dashed green line).
november/december 2021
Share of U.S. Electricity
From Zero-Carbon Resources (%)
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021

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