IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - 59

ZeroByFifty and the MIT study both find that current high-voltage
transmission will have to double (in megawatt-miles)
to reach 100% clean electricity.
predicts demand nearly doubling by 2050, depending on the
pace of electrification. ZeroByFifty forecasts a doubling of
current demand by 2050 to reach full energy-economy-wide
decarbonization. Electrification will change the magnitudes,
profiles, and locations of demand.
To serve this increased demand, a significant capacity of
new clean resources will be required. Due to the low and declining
cost of energy from wind and PVs, many studies project
significant expanded development. At least 1 TW of new wind
and PV capacity may be needed to reach 100% clean electricity,
and twice that may be needed to reach 100% clean energy. For
example, ZeroByFifty finds 1 TW of new PVs and 1 TW of new
wind by 2050 needed to meet 100% clean energy [Figure 2(a)].
RIIA finds 1 TW of new wind/PVs is required to meet 100%
clean electricity within the EI.
Significant transmission will be needed to deliver these
resources to loads. ZeroByFifty found that transmission
expansion is required under all future scenarios to decarbonize.
The amount of new transmission varies depending on
scenario and future demand levels. ZeroByFifty and the MIT
study both find that current high-voltage transmission will
have to double (in megawatt-miles) to reach 100% clean electricity.
To reach 100% clean energy, ZeroByFifty finds that
nearly 400 million MW-mi of transmission will be needed on
top of today's levels [see Figure 2(b)].
Transmission Costs Are a Tiny Portion
of the Total System Costs
In ZeroByFifty, the sum of annualized transmission investments
between now and 2050 needed to reach 100% clean
electricity is approximately US$200 billion. To reach 100%
clean energy, this increases to US$350 billion. Figure 3
shows that transmission costs are less than 10% of total system
costs in the MIT, Interconnection Seam, and ZeroByFifty
studies.
A Proactive, Planned Approach
Saves Money
Brattle's Offshore Wind Studies examined offshore wind integration
in both the New England and New York ISO systems.
They found that a coordinated offshore transmission network
offered a variety of operational and economic benefits compared
to the conventional approach using individual generator tie
lines. For example, proactive planning and investment in a single
high-voltage dc (HVdc) offshore grid interconnecting 8.6 GW of
offshore wind in New England will be less expensive than the
conventional planning approach of interconnecting each wind
november/december 2021
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350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BAU
Clean Electricity (100%)
Economy-Wide Clean Energy (100%)
(b)
figure 2. The ZeroByFifty results. (a) Resource mix required
to reach energy-economy-wide decarbonization by
2050 and (b) new transmission in ZeroByFifty for business
as usual (BAU) (gray), 100% clean electricity (green), and
100% clean energy (blue) scenarios.
ieee power & energy magazine
59
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Utility Solar PV
Distributed Solar PV
Offshore Wind Onshore Wind
Hydroelectric Geothermal and Biomass
Molten Salt Reactor Nuclear
Small Modular Reactor Nuclear
Traditional Nuclear
Electric Storage
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine
Natural Gas With Carbon Capture
and Sequestration
Natural Gas Combined Cycle
Coal
(a)
Incremental Transmission
Buildout (1 million MW-mi)
Installed Capacity (GW)
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021

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