IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - 69

Europe has de-emphasized clean, firm sources of power, such
as nuclear or carbon capture and sequestration, and is placing
major emphasis on renewable energy.
costs. Relying on existing natural gas plants to provide the last
10% of generation avoids new investments for infrequently
used capacity, avoids stranded-asset costs, and cuts emissions.
The 90% Clean case nearly eliminates U.S. power sector
emissions by 2035, which avoids more than US$1.2 trillion
in health and environmental costs, including 85,000 premature
deaths, through 2050. These projected savings equate to
roughly 2¢/kWh of wholesale electricity costs. This suggests
that the 90% Clean case is the lowest net-cost option when
environmental and health costs are considered.
To achieve the 90% Clean case by 2035, 1,100 GW of
new wind and solar generation would need to be built, averaging
about 70 GW per year. Recent U.S. precedents for
natural gas and wind/solar expansion (roughly 30 GW of
utility-scale solar and wind installed in 2020) suggest that
a renewable energy buildout of this magnitude is challenging
but may be feasible. New renewable resources are being
developed across the country, as lower installed costs make
even regions with lower resource quality more cost-effective,
as shown in a Net-Zero America Project study done by
Princeton University.
Achieving Low-Carbon Grids:
The Policy Challenge
To realize the promise of an affordable, reliable, clean power
system, the United States will need to roughly double solar
and wind annual deployments through the 2020s (60 GW/
year) and then nearly triple historical maximums in the 2030s
(80 GW/year). Power generation has expanded at a similar
scale before, with natural gas power plant deployment rates
exceeding 50 GW in 2002. With rapid electrification, the
pace will need to increase. Changes in policies, utility regulation,
and power market structures are needed for a sustained
buildout of renewables of this magnitude.
State-level renewable portfolio standards have demonstrated
that requirements on electric utilities to meet clean
energy targets can be an effective tool to drive deployment
of zero-carbon ( " clean " ) electricity resources and address
electricity sector emissions. These so-called clean electricity
standards, which target 100% clean electricity, have now been
passed in nine states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. No
state or U.S. agency has fully developed a plan to meet these
targets. Openly reviewed modeling studies, including those
summarized in previous sections, provide important information
as policy makers develop such plans.
Climate policy experts, including the International Energy
Agency, increasingly call for countries across the globe to
november/december 2021
decarbonize the electricity sector well before 2050 to reach
net-zero emissions by midcentury. The University of California
(UC) Berkeley's " 2035 Report " concludes that setting a
clean energy standard of 90% by 2035 would put the United
States on a path to achieve net-zero economy-wide emissions
by 2050. Electricity system decarbonization also has the
potential to reduce emissions from other sectors, such as transportation
and buildings, which may rely on electrification as
primary decarbonization strategies.
Policies enabling transmission expansion are also important
for rapid renewable electricity buildout. In 2020, 670 GW of
renewable generation and more than 200 GW of energy storage
sat in queues waiting to interconnect to high-voltage transmission
systems-more than half of the capacity needed to meet
a 90% clean energy standard. These projects face costly delays
due in part to conventional interconnection rules. According to
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's recent report " Queued
Up: Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection
as of the End of 2020, " average interconnection wait
times in four of the country's largest grid operators grew from
1.9 years in the 2000s to 3.5 years in the 2010s. Today's rules
typically require every new generation resource to separately
pay grid upgrade costs to interconnect their power plant to the
system. Proactive transmission planning and upgrades with a
more holistic regional perspective have the potential to reduce
interconnection timelines and costs, facilitating more rapid renewable
energy deployment.
In July 2021, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to determine whether
revisions to existing regulations to improve the electric regional
transmission planning and cost allocation and generator interconnection
processes are needed to achieve just and reasonable
rates. In part, the commission proceeding is responding to the
grid's transition to more variable renewable energy. The Midcontinent
Independent System Operator's Multi-Value Project
transmission expansion plan has reduced interconnection
queue waiting times, decreased the risk for developers, and
shown benefits for all electricity customers in its footprint.
Adopting a more comprehensive regional planning approach
similar to this can be beneficial at the national scale.
Reducing permitting and siting conflicts by prescreening
federal and state lands for suitability can support a rapid buildout
of new renewable resources and associated transmission.
Wind and solar plants require significant land area; for example,
achieving the 90% Clean scenario from the UC Berkeley
" 2035 Report " required an estimated 0.4% of the area of the
continental United States. The Princeton Net-Zero America
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021

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