IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021 - 76

for a 95% North Sea Offshore Network 2050 renewable scenario
in Germany. In this scenario, 5% of energy from fossil
fuels (mainly natural gas) is assumed. To reach a 100% clean
energy scenario, hydrogen or synthetic fuels could replace
fossil resources. The left bar represents the load side, while
the right bar shows the different energy sources. As seen, the
part originating from chemical fuels is rather small.
The data are derived from the SCOPE model developed
by the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy
System Technology. The model determines the minimum cost
of covering demand profiles from the electricity, heat, and
transport sectors by the various energy sources from a macroeconomic
perspective. Thanks to hourly modeling of the supply-and-demand
characteristics of a scenario year, it is possible
to model both renewable energy production and conventional
power plants as well as storage technologies and flexibility options.
A variety of conventional and renewable generation technologies
was considered for power generation. The technology
of carbon capture and storage (CCS) was not considered as
CCS does not currently seem likely in Germany. The necessary
flexibility for integrating renewable power generation was
modeled using various storage technologies, load management
options, and European cross-border exchanges of energy.
Therefore, the model not only incorporates the German system
but also takes neighboring systems and resources into account
as well. Figure 7 shows one week in March as an example.
Conclusion
A significant global effort remains to achieve decarbonization
goals being adopted by society. Establishing the target year of
2035 in the United States, rather than the typical 2050 target
date, helps align expectations for power sector decarbonization
with climate realities while informing the policy dialog needed to
achieve such an ambitious goal. Aiming for 90% clean electricity
by 2035 is also important for envisioning rapid, cost-effective decarbonization
of other sectors through sector coupling. By 2035,
emerging technologies, such as firm, low-carbon power, should
begin to replace remaining natural gas generation as the nation
accelerates toward 100%. Europe is already following such a
strategy, as illustrated by the example of Germany.
Rapid decarbonization is necessary to increase the
likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. The target
of 90% clean electricity, rather than 100%, by 2035 is
important for envisioning decarbonization at a pace more
rapid than considered in many previous studies, while still
being economically feasible. This target allows some existing
natural gas generation capacity to be used infrequently
to meet demand during periods of low renewable energy
generation while giving time for investments in alternative
approaches to demonstrate technical maturity and economic
viability.
For Further Reading
A. Phadke et al., " Plummeting solar, wind, and battery costs
can accelerate our clean energy future, " Univ. California,
76
ieee power & energy magazine
Berkeley, Rep. 2035, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www
.2035report.com/electricity/downloads/
A. Sonia and M. O'Boyle, " Top policies to capture the
economic opportunity of a clean electricity system, " Energy
Innovation, San Francisco, Rep. 2035, 2020. [Online]. Available:
https://www.2035report.com/electricity/downloads/
C. T. M. Clack, A. Choukulkar, B. Cote, and S. McKee,
" Why local solar for all costs less: A new roadmap for the
lowest cost grid, " Vibrant Clean Energy, 2020. [Online].
Available: https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/
uploads/2020/12/WhyDERs_TR_Final.pdf
C. T. M. Clack, M. Goggin, A. Choukulkar, B. Cote, and
S. McKee, " Consumer, employment, and environmental benefits
of electricity transmission expansion in the Eastern U.S. "
Americans for a Clean Energy Grid, Arlington, VA, 2020.
[Online]. https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/
uploads/2020/10/EIC-Transmission-Decarb.pdf
E. Larson et al., Net-zero America: Potential pathways,
infrastructure, and impacts, " Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ,
Interim Rep., Dec. 15, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://acee
.princeton.edu/rapidswitch/projects/net-zero-america-project/
R. Orvis and M. Mahajan, " A 1.5°C NDC for climate leadership
by the United States, " Energy Innovation, San Francisco,
Apr. 2021. [Online]. Available: https://energyinnovation.org/
wp-content/uploads/2021/04/A-1.5-C-Pathway-to-Climate
-Leadership-for-The-United-States_NDC-update.pdf
J. Rand, M. Bolinger, R. Wiser, S. Jeong, and B. Paulos,
" Queued up: Characteristics of power plants seeking transmission
interconnection as of the end of 2020, " Berkeley Lab,
Berkeley, May 2021. [Online]. Available: https://emp.lbl
.gov/publications/queued-characteristics-power-plants
P. Bodnar et al., " How to retire early: Making accelerated
coal phaseout feasible and just, " RMI, Boulder, CO, 2020.
[Online]. Available: https://rmi.org/insight/how-to-retire-early
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Renewable Electricity
Futures Study, vols. 1-4, NREL/TP-6A20-52409.
M. M. Hand et al., Eds. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy
Laboratory, 2012. [Online]. Available: http://www.nrel.gov/
analysis/re_futures/
Biographies
Ric O'Connell is with GridLab, Berkeley, California, 94704,
USA.
Amol Phadke is with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
Berkeley, California, 94720, USA.
Michael O'Boyle is with Energy Innovation, San Francisco,
California, 94111, USA.
Christopher T. Clack is with Vibrant Clean Energy,
Broomfield, Colorado, 80301, USA.
Paul Denholm is with the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, 80401, USA.
Bernhard Ernst is with the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy
Economics and Energy System Technology, Kassel,
34119, Germany.
p&e
november/december 2021

http://www.2035report.com/electricity/downloads/ http://www.2035report.com/electricity/downloads/ https://www.2035report.com/electricity/downloads/ https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/whyders_tr_final.pdf https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/whyders_tr_final.pdf https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/eic-transmission-decarb.pdf https://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/eic-transmission-decarb.pdf http://www.acee.princeton.edu/rapidswitch/projects/net-zero-america-project/ http://www.acee.princeton.edu/rapidswitch/projects/net-zero-america-project/ https://www.energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a-1.5-c-pathway-to-climate-leadership-for-the-united-states_ndc-update.pdf https://www.energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a-1.5-c-pathway-to-climate-leadership-for-the-united-states_ndc-update.pdf https://www.energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a-1.5-c-pathway-to-climate-leadership-for-the-united-states_ndc-update.pdf https://www.emp.lbl.gov/publications/queued-characteristics-power-plants https://www.emp.lbl.gov/publications/queued-characteristics-power-plants https://www.rmi.org/insight/how-to-retire-early http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2021

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