Off Highway Engineering - November 7, 2013 - 20

More for less

Battelle researchers are searching for the fundamental mechanical
causes of wear and tear so prognostics can be improved.

Hardware giveaway

Predicting the future

As the bandwidth of cellular links rises, suppliers and users
alike are striving to get even more functionality. That's especially true with one of the common telematic features, gathering diagnostic information.
There can be huge benefits when diagnostic data turns into
prognostics, alerting operators that a component or system is
nearing its failure points. Prognostics is already common for
fluids-Allison Transmissions includes it on every automatic
transmission.
However, prognostics is more of a challenge for mechanical
parts. It's no simple task to analyze vibration, temperature, and
other parameters and determine that a field failure is imminent
unless a service stop is scheduled.
Technologists have to understand all sorts of subtleties to predict failures without calling vehicles in for unnecessary repairs.
That's a complex task that involves many different engineering and
scientific disciplines.
"Decades of work have been dedicated to looking at the mechanics behind failures," said Denny Stephens, Research Leader,
Vehicle System Safety Research & Engineering at Battelle
Transportation Operations Research. "We're looking at the fundamental mechanical causes of wear and looking at cost-effective
sensors that monitor the progress of wear until it reaches a threshold where failure is imminent."
The ability to send more data to maintenance shops is a small
portion of the transition from diagnostics to prognostics.
Programmers and analysts have to figure out how to best analyze
and utilize the huge volumes of information now called big data.
"Having an open house for data collection will not make a
wiser person," said Thilo Koslowski, Vice President for Automotive
at Gartner. "When it comes to something like prognostics, figuring
out what's going to happen is still a huge challenge. Big data often
brings many more questions before it brings answers."

"Much has been talked about in this area, and there are some partnerships, but nothing that has been successful so far," Ransom said. "At
the same time, OEMs are collecting massive amounts of data. That
seems to me to be the eventual confluence, with OEMs working with a
fleet telematics company to bring data together in a meaningful way."
Some observers feel that partnerships will become a central part of
corporate strategies. OEMs and third-party suppliers may eventually
work together.
"Increasingly, OEMs will standardize fleet management systems in
the vehicle from start," Brunbäck said. "These systems will also be more
open to incorporate previous legacy systems, ranging from other truck
manufacturers and third-party providers."
More joint efforts are likely to come if government regulators mandate dedicated short range communications (DSRC) so vehicles can
talk to each other. In 2014, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (NHTSA) is scheduled to decide whether to mandate
DSRC in heavy vehicles.
"If connected-vehicle technology is mandated, companies will likely
turn to partnerships so they can get the most benefits in the least
amount of time," said Denny Stephens, Research Leader, Vehicle
System Safety Research & Engineering at Battelle Transportation
Operations Research. "Standardization will be critical because it lowers
the cost of entry and makes the cost of implementation less onerous."
Pricing declines have been another major change in the industry. These
reductions have come in tandem with the expansion of features and
functions. The combination of additional features, lower pricing, and
descriptions of successful installations dramatically is altering returnon-investment ratios.
"Something I think has been very important is that there's been
more exposure," Ransom said. "We are seeing more and more successful implementations of telematics, and the word is getting around."
The upward spiral driven by success stories is driving a downward
spiral for pricing. Suppliers who once charged for telematic boxes have
followed the successful path used for cell phones-giving modules
away to build long-term revenues.
"Pricing has moved to a pure subscription model, we rarely see
hardware costs now," said Fleetmatics' Durkee. "In general, the technology is getting smarter. A few years ago, it was mainly proof of concept.
Now, owners want a solid return on investment."
Those returns come in many forms. Reduced fuel consumption and
driving times are common benefits along with enhanced diagnostics.
Many owners are also seeing reduced insurance costs.
"Insurance rates can improve when companies can show definitively that they have an effective safety system in place," Durkee said.

Commercial programs

Telematics has seen rapid growth in on-highway fleets, where it's more
straightforward to determine the return on investment. The requirements of commercial fleets have more similarities than do the needs of
off-highway vehicles, making it easier for service and software providers to target markets with significant volumes.
As these volumes grow, developers are responding to user requests
for more functionality. Suppliers find that fleet managers are anxious to
deploy programs that help them improve efficiency.
For example, companies such as DriveCam continue to add more
features to software that monitors driver performance, providing real-

Terry Costlow

SAE OHE November 7, 2013

www.offhighway-online.org

http://www.offhighway-online.org

Off Highway Engineering - November 7, 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Off Highway Engineering - November 7, 2013