Automotive Engineering - December 2022 - 24

TENSION
AND THE
ELECTRIC
TAKEOVER
Schaeffler's new " 4-in-1 e-axle integrates a high-performance
radial-flux motor and thermal-management system.
Engines on the production line at a Volvo facility in Skovde, Sweden. As an answer
to the conflicting demands of parallel IC and EV development, Volvo and parent
company Geely are consolidating their powertrain-production assets into a
separate business unit.
selling BEVs come true, " he said, " in 2040 as many as 75 percent of
cars on the road will still be combustion-based. "
Aurobay may consider going public but has no such plan at this
time, Bloomberg reported. But Fleiss said a surprising number of entities
have shown interest. " These investors see there is a big business
still to make, and quite some revenue to be done before this
technology dies out, " he was reported as saying.
John Pinson, CEO at multinational fueling-systems supplier
Stanadyne, finds it difficult to plan for a market of 50% EV sales as
soon as 2030.
" If you look at the different aggressive penetration [forecasts],
looking at possibly 30% of the light-duty transportation sector being
BEV, I think that's going to be a stretch for a lot of different reasons, "
he said. " But even if you took that and then [factor in] the natural
growth of light-duty transport across the market, it's going to grow
at about 30%. So, regardless of how quickly this transformation happens,
there's going to be a lot of internal combustion. You could be
faced with virtually the same number of internal-combustion engines
being sold into that market in 2030 as today. "
Expected market growth can't be assumed, however, counters
Ohio State's Atkinson.
" It's really tricky, " Atkinson submits. " Prior to the COVID pandemic,
we [the U.S. auto market] were running along nicely at 17 million
units a year. Now down at 13 [million] and will have been essentially
for three consecutive years. So that's a difference - and it's a different
market. "
24 December 2022
New vehicle MSRPs now average more than
$47,000. For EVs, it's more than $65,000. " So it's a
distorted market; it's not the market we used to have, "
he continued. " Clearly, getting to 50% of 13 million is
easier than getting to 50% of 17 million, not simply
because of the numbers, but because we've lost 4 million
vehicles, largely at the low end of the market. "
Lower-priced vehicles, Atkinson continued, are more
difficult to justify electrifying because of the cost constraint.
" We have a distorted market now where we're
selling fewer, much-higher MSRP vehicles to much
wealthier people on average who are fairly keen on
electrification. In September of this year, we were at
7% plug-in electric vehicles - a combination of plug-in
hybrids and full battery-electric vehicles - and that
was at 10% for cars and 5.5% for light trucks, according
to the sales statistics. So, this is a transition that's
already underway. "
Carrots and sticks
How quickly can it be achieved, and to what extent?
Atkinson argues that it's been made a lot tougher by
the federal government's Inflation Reduction Act and
the fact that federal rebates [to EV buyers] now will
depend not only on battery component manufacturing
in North America, but also 'extracting and processing'
for critical battery materials in North America, too.
That's going to be a significant limitation.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
FROM LEFT: VOLVO CARS; SCHAEFFLER
Automotive Engineering - December 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Automotive Engineering - December 2022
