Automotive Engineering - December 2022 - 25

ELECTRIFICATION FEATURE
" For 13 million vehicles, half of them EVs, we would need approximately
18 very large battery manufacturing facilities. We've got a long way to go. "
Although the Biden
Administration is
pushing for EVs to
account for 50% of
U.S. sales by 2030,
most analysts
believe it will
not be possible.
This Wards-LMC
Automotive
forecast puts total
EV sales for North
America at just less
than 37% in 2030.
" For 13 million vehicles, half of them EVs, we would
need approximately 18 very large battery manufacturing
facilities. We've got a long way to go. " The grand
question of how far and how fast EV adoption can happen
effectively is a high-stakes version of the supplyand-demand
equation that governs production of virtually
all consumer products. But how much demand can
be artificially induced is a critical variable in the transition
to EVs. Probably the most significant technologyguiding
element is government influence in the form of
emissions and/or fuel-efficiency regulations.
California's 2035 combustion-banning mandate is in
fact an emissions regulation. It forces the phase-out of
fossil-fuel internal-combustion propulsion. And Europe's
latest Euro 7 emissions standard, finalized in November
2022 (and set to begin in mid-2025 for passenger vehicles
and 2027 for commercial vehicles), ignited controversy
when several industry entities, including the
European Automobile Manufacturers Assn. (ACEA) and
Ford, said that a working framework to mandate EVs
makes another round of tightened emissions regulations
counterproductive - and will sidetrack resources away
from EV development.
" The new proposed Euro 7 emission standard for
cars and vans with combustion engines, published on
Nov. 10, 2022, has the potential to undermine the
great progress Europe has made in shifting to electric
mobility, " Martin Sander, Ford of Europe's general
manager for the Model e division, declared. " We
should not be diverting resources to yesterday's
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
technology and invest in zero-emission instead. "
Gregory Pannone, who until his recent retirement was executive
director, Powertrain Analysis at S&P Global Mobility, told SAE Media
regarding U.S. emissions regulations, " Based on the past, I believe
that fuel economy/greenhouse-gas regulations will continue to be
more politically-driven/ideology-biased than a serious review of all of
the environmental impacts of electrification versus ICE-based propulsion. "
He added that collateral elements " such as mining of materials
required for batteries and motors, upstream emissions - i.e., the
source of electricity generation - charging infrastructure and consumer
costs should weigh heavily on any proposed regulation.
" I suspect that the next round of proposals will align with the 50%
EV goal stated by the White House, " Pannone concluded. " Estimating
CO2 and fuel-economy targets based on removing 50% of ICE-based
powertrains and replacing them with BEVs is fairly simple math, " he
said. " This type of aspirational goal led to the 54.5-mpg goal (simply
doubling fuel economy) originally floated by President Obama. "
" Why are we using our resources for a technology we want to ban?
It's not common sense, " Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares told a conference
in Berlin, as reported by Reuters. Further pursuit of internalcombustion
emissions standards, he added, are a " diversion from the
major goal of electrification. "
What's to be done
Automakers are directing much of the public discourse about the
electrification transformation and each is directing its own version of
the conversation. Some have been straightforward about their intentions.
Ford claims 40% of its global sales will be EV by 2030. GM says
its entire light-vehicle production will be EVs by 2035. Honda is going
December 2022 25
WARDS-LMC AUTOMOTIVE
Automotive Engineering - December 2022

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