Automotive Engineering - February 2023 - 5

SUPPLIER EYE
CASE struggles to fulfil expectations
T
he saying 'Two steps forward, one step
back' describes the overall progress of
CASE - Connected, Autonomous, Shared
and Electrified vehicles and infrastructures.
While electrification and connected technologies
arguably have each taken a step forward, funding
four industry-changing secular shifts in unison was
always a lot to ask. The resulting investment headwinds
are not surprising, given the added impacts
of COVID, microchip and labor shortages, the
Russia-Ukraine war, and inflation/higher interest
rates dampening vehicle sales.
Viewed from 30,000 feet, CASE's uneven
takeoff trajectory has been governed by often
unproven technologies being deployed within
unrealistic timelines. OEMs and suppliers have
devoted billions to the development and implementation
of electrified propulsion in the major
developed markets. Regulations have made the
'E' in CASE the highest priority. This includes
battery-electric vehicle development and assembly,
battery chemistry R&D, cell plants, strategic
materials sourcing, downstream materials
recycling and the required charging infrastructure
buildout. The scale of investment and risk
acceptance has been staggering.
The new vehicle platforms in 'E' are a key enabler,
along with the ability to vastly increase
(beyond Tesla's track record) meaningful overthe-air
(OTA) software updates. That's the 'C' in
CASE - making real-time improvements to software
and modifying/opening vehicle functionality.
The potential for 'C' to bolster customer satisfaction/convenience
aligns well with emerging
electric-vehicle development.
By comparison, the initial trajectories of the 'S'
and the 'A' for CASE have been problematic.
Vehicle sharing (the 'S') is highly dependent upon
improved autonomous ('A') capabilities and, to a
lesser degree, connected tech. The promise of
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) as a sustainable
business model depends on having driverless
automation at SAE levels 4 and 5. Scores of
OEMs and suppliers have reviewed the timelines
and ROI for L4 and L5 MaaS and concluded that
the ongoing investment, delays, and priority realignments
are not worth their time. The recent
dissolution of Argo AI is one example.
Some OEMs and suppliers continue to march
Michael Robinet
Executive Director,
Consulting,
S&P Global Mobility
SAE Foundation
Trustee
michael.robinet
@spglobal.com
An uneven
takeoff
governed
by unproven
technologies
and unrealistic
timelines.
forward on CASE's elusive elements. But from an
Autonomous perspective, the industry's focus
increasingly is on near-term deployment of Level
2 and Level 2+ (enhanced ADAS) capabilities.
Driving the strategy shift are higher and more
rapid investment returns, lower development
costs and reduced deployment risks.
Regular updates to the S&P Global Mobility
Autonomy Forecasts over the last 12-plus
months underscore the movement in raising the
safety and convenience levels of new vehicles
using SAE Level 2 capabilities. But the latest
enhancements to the Autonomy Forecasts introduce
the Level 2+ breakout as the differences in
functionality, strategy and vehicle content remain
meaningful for both consumers and OEMs.
Level 2+ includes Driver Facial Monitoring that
enables some form of eyes-on-the-road, handsoff-the-wheel
capability.
The incremental " hands-off " element of driver
assistance may seem trivial, but competitive
differentiation in this space is fierce. OEMs reckon
they can increase brand and vehicle values
with the driver convenience features, improved
occupant safety, faster speed to market (with
upgrades coming via OTA) and cost management.
In 2022, it was estimated that vehicles
equipped with Level 2 and Level 2+ total 43% of
North American light vehicle production. That's
forecast to grow to at least 55% by 2030. Within
this Level 2/2+ grouping, Level 2+ share will
more than triple from an estimated 8% in 2022
to more than 30% by 2030.
In the end, CASE investments are both expensive
and fraught with risk. Within the 'A,'
OEMs are placing less risky, near-term bets on
Level 2+ capabilities as they devote hefty investments
toward the 'E', and reap the value of
'A' technology, with 'C' enhancements via OTA.
Meanwhile, they wait for the 'S' business model
to truly emerge.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
February 2023 5
Automotive Engineering - February 2023

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