Automotive Engineering - May 2023 - 30

Fuels to
transition
the global
legacy
fleet
An advancedtechnology
ICE
undergoes testing
at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison's
Engine Research Lab.
P
ut the promise of mass vehicle electrification and its myriad
challenges aside for a moment, and consider: What if most
IC-engine vehicle owners don't switch to EVs as the industry
and regulators hope they will?
And how long will it take to alter the existing global vehicle parc,
estimated at more than one billion mostly ICE-powered vehicles, to
the extent its greenhouse-gas emissions are insignificant in the crusade
to achieve net-zero (and thwart global warming) by 2050?
Some unavoidable truths: Simply ending sales of ICE vehicles, as
some OEMs say they will do within the next decade, won't solve the
vehicle-emissions challenge, analysts and powertrain engineers tell
SAE Media. In the U.S., the fleet is aging steadily. The average lightduty
vehicle on the street today is 12.2 years old, according to forecasters
S&P Global, up from 9.6 years in 2002. Engineered to last
longer than ever, the roughly 15 million new gasoline-fueled cars and
light trucks sold last year are expected to survive for 20 years or
more, on average, as they're cycled through successive owners.
Thousands end up in foreign markets, bringing their worn valve
guides and non-functioning exhaust aftertreatment with them.
Even optimistic EV-adoption scenarios concede that hundreds of
millions of new ICE vehicles, increasingly hybrid-electric, will enter
use worldwide by 2035 and beyond. Strategies already are being
bandied by policymakers and enviro-NGOs for cleansing the global
parc of its enormous piston-engine legacy. In discussion are the U.S
EPA;s recently proposed tailpipe regulations, stiff CO2 taxes, trade-in
" clunker " scrapping schemes and combustion-vehicle user fees.
30 May 2023
The EV bandwagon has
obscured potential solutions for
decarbonizing the enormous
global ICE legacy fleet.
by Lindsay Brooke
The question isn't whether the transition to EVs can
be done; " it's how fast can it be done, " the Alliance for
Automotive Innovation warned in early April. The automaker
trade group was anticipating the proposed
EPA vehicle emission regulations for 2027-2032 and a
new round of more aggressive fuel economy standards
from the NHTSA, both of which are aimed at spurring
the shift.
'Green' fuels
The EV may seem to be the forgone conclusion for a
sustainable, carbon-free mobility future, but it's not the
only, nor necessarily the optimum way forward, argues
SAE Fellow Kelly Senecal, co-author (with Felix Leach)
of the book Racing Toward Zero: The Untold Story of
Driving Green. There is no 'silver bullet;' all propulsion
technologies, from ICE and hybrids to BEVs and fuel cell
EVs, impact the environment. Given the enormity of the
gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicle parc, improving
the ICE and its fuels must be a " main route on the road
to zero emissions, " the authors assert.
The mobility future, as Senecal and Leach see it,
requires a balanced approach. It's not a matter of
choosing between combustion or electrification; it's a
combination of the two. " The future is eclectic, " they
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON DEPT. OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Automotive Engineering - May 2023

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