SAE Update - April 2023 - 32

ENGINEERING EVENTS
How safe is safe enough
for autonomous vehicles
APRIL 18-20, 2023
DETROIT
TM
to match an average driver's
capability. It's all about making
an apples-to-apples comparison.
The age and type of vehicle
matters as well. Any new, highend
car with excellent crash
safety and collision mitigation
systems is likely to be safer than
a fleet-average 12-year-old midrange
car that has fewer and
older safety features. Turning on
automated driving features could
reduce safety for a new car
compared to manual driving
while still being safer than an
" average " car. Preferably, the AV
should be as safe as other
comparably equipped new cars.
In short, AV safety should be
compared to good, unimpaired
drivers on the same roads in the
same operating conditions in
comparable vehicles with a
decent suite of non-autonomous
safety features. That will set the
" safe enough " bar much higher
than a simple U.S. national
average for initial deployments.
Beyond average numerical safety
metrics
The tricky bit is that even if an
AV is significantly safer than a
comparable human driver in
comparable conditions, that
might still not meet all the
societally acceptable conditions
32 April 2023
AV SAFETY
HIERARCHY
OF NEEDS
JUST
CUlTUrE
SOCiOTECHNiCAl
SYSTEM
SAFETY
SOTiF
Lifecycle-oriented safety culture
Stakeholder expectations
ANSI/IL 4800 - safety case
ISO 21448 - insufficiencies
FUNCTiONAl SAFETY
HAZArD ANAlYSiS
BASiC DriViNG FUNCTiONAliTY
DEFENSiVE DriViNG
ISO 28262 - internal faults
Engineering risk mitigation
AV avoids driving risk
Can the AV drive?
Safe AVs need to satisfy multiple safety needs at the same time.
of being " safe enough. "
As a thought experiment, what if the total number
of fatalities per year were cut in half to about 20,000
for the U.S.? (We don't actually know if this will
happen anytime soon, but one can hope for such an
outcome.) A utilitarian-minded engineer might
declare that as a huge victory. And to be sure, half the
fatalities would be great! But there are some issues
that might arise nonetheless...
What if every single victim of those 20,000
fatalities were a pedestrian, representing a net
increase in harm to pedestrians, while the owners of
cars drove in perfect safety? What if school children
crossing the street or workers at emergency response
scenes had ten times the risk of being killed by an AV
compared to current human-driven vehicle mishaps,
even if overall total fatalities were lower? What if
these situations were due to a clearly fixable defect
with the autonomous capability, even though average
safety improved significantly?
While these are extreme hypothetical examples to
make a point, the important message is that beyond
UPDATE
Philip Koopman
‹--------- SECUriTY ----------›

SAE Update - April 2023

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of SAE Update - April 2023

SAE Update - April 2023 - Cov1
SAE Update - April 2023 - Cov2
SAE Update - April 2023 - 1
SAE Update - April 2023 - 2
SAE Update - April 2023 - 3
SAE Update - April 2023 - 4
SAE Update - April 2023 - 5
SAE Update - April 2023 - 6
SAE Update - April 2023 - 7
SAE Update - April 2023 - 8
SAE Update - April 2023 - 9
SAE Update - April 2023 - 10
SAE Update - April 2023 - 11
SAE Update - April 2023 - 12
SAE Update - April 2023 - 13
SAE Update - April 2023 - 14
SAE Update - April 2023 - 15
SAE Update - April 2023 - 16
SAE Update - April 2023 - 17
SAE Update - April 2023 - 18
SAE Update - April 2023 - 19
SAE Update - April 2023 - 20
SAE Update - April 2023 - 21
SAE Update - April 2023 - 22
SAE Update - April 2023 - 23
SAE Update - April 2023 - 24
SAE Update - April 2023 - 25
SAE Update - April 2023 - 26
SAE Update - April 2023 - 27
SAE Update - April 2023 - 28
SAE Update - April 2023 - 29
SAE Update - April 2023 - 30
SAE Update - April 2023 - 31
SAE Update - April 2023 - 32
SAE Update - April 2023 - 33
SAE Update - April 2023 - 34
SAE Update - April 2023 - 35
SAE Update - April 2023 - 36
SAE Update - April 2023 - 37
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SAE Update - April 2023 - 40
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SAE Update - April 2023 - 60
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