Automotive Engineering - May 2024 - 30

Are we stuck with
LITHIUM-ION?
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Battery 2030+
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Pack
Cell
Total
$732
$230
Panasonic
CATL
SDI
LISHEN
LG-Chem
GOTION
SKI
Sony
1990
Source: Battery 2030+
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1995
$502
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2013
$230
$502
$732
Source: BNEF
NEF
Most estimates range anywhere from five to 15 years. As for who is
most likely to step forward first, Plante Moran's Lee suspects it will
come from a non-OEM startup or supplier. " It could be Tesla or BYD,
companies with a strong core competency in battery manufacturing.
[The OEMs'] internal capabilities to develop a new chemistry in the
lab and bring it to production, I think, are lacking, " he said. " That's
why you see OEMs, via their venture capital arms, making investments
into some of these technologies. "
Siyu Huang, founder and CEO of Factorial Energy, which is betting on
its quasi solid-state technology, said the race to get to market is fierce.
30 May 2024
" Everybody's looking at a timeline from '26, '27, '28 or '29,
around that time frame, " she said. " We are very committed
to bringing the technology to the market the soonest
among all of the players. "
Factorial's solid-state tech
Factorial Energy uses a polymer-based solid-state
electrolyte system. The use of a polymer either results
in low energy density or no improvement in
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
USA Battery 500
Panasonic
CATL
SDI
LISHEN
LG-Chem
GOTION
SKI
Roadmap of China
Roadmap of China
300 Wh/kg
1500 cycles
0.8 RMB/Wh
High safety
By:
CATL
GOTION
LISHEN
CALB
300 Wh/kg
1500 cycles
0.8 RMB/Wh
High safety
By:
CATL
GOTION
LISHEN
CALB
HV spinel or Li-rich
/Si-Gr or Gr
Ni80+ /Si-Gr
NCR21700A, 5 Ah, 1000 cycles
NCR18650B, 3.35 Ah, 500 cycles
NCR21700A, 5 Ah, 1000 cycles
NCR18650B, 3.35 Ah, 500 cycles
LFP/Gr
NCM111/Gr
Phylion: 140 Wh/kg
LMO/Gr
Sony
1990
$732
Lithium-ion battery pack prices: pack and cell split $/KWh
$649
$230
$649
$208
$421
$502
$441
$282
Pack
Cell
Total
2014
$208
$441
$649
2013
$230
$502
$732
2015
$139
$282
$421
2014
$208
$441
$649
$236
2016
$88
$236
$324
2015
$139
$282
$421
$139 $441
$324
$88 $282
$242
$72
$170
2017
$72
$170
$242
Cell
$236
2016
$88
$236
$324
$198
$55
$143
2018
$55
$143
$198
Pack
$139
$324
$88
$242
$72
$170
2017
$72
$170
$242
Cell
Total
New technologies are competing with lithium-ion batteries' cost, which has been driven down as the market has scaled.
$198
$55
$172 $143
$52
$120
2019
$52
$120
$172
2018
$55
$143
$198
Pack
$208
$421
1995
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
Year
pouch: NCM811/Si-Gr
pouch: NCM523/Gr
pouch: NCM811/Si-Gr
pouch: NCM523/Gr
LFP/Gr
NCM111/Gr
Phylion: 140 Wh/kg
LMO/Gr
NCM622(Ni65)/Gr
NCM-811/Gr
NCM-523+LMO+NCA/Gr
NCM111/Gr
USA Battery 500
Japan RISING II
HV spinel or Li-rich
/Si-Gr or Gr
Ni80+ /Si-Gr
Li-metal anode
Solid state battery
Ni>80 NCM or
NCA/Li-metal
Ni95 NCM/Gr+Si
NCM-811/Gr+Si
NCM622(Ni65)/Gr
NCM-811/Gr
NCM-523+LMO+NCA/Gr
NCM111/Gr
hollow-point: under development
Drawn by Yi Wang, Yaxiang Lu, Yu Ren, Zhiwei Yang, Hong Li
hollow-point: under development
Drawn by Yi Wang, Yaxiang Lu, Yu Ren, Zhiwei Yang, Hong Li
2010
2015
2015
Lithium-ion battery pack prices: pack and cell split $/KWh
Year
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
Japan RISING II
Li-metal anode
Solid state battery
Ni95 NCM/Gr+Si
NCM-811/Gr+Si
One overview of
the development
of different battery
companies and
their technologies
suggests solidstate
batteries
would not hit the
market until close
to 2030.
Ni>80 NCM or
NCA/Li-metal
$172
$52
$150 $120
$38
$112
2020
$38
$112
$150
Total
2019
$52
$120
$172
$150
$38
$141 $112
$33
$108
2021
$33
$108
$141
2020
$38
$112
$150
$141
$33
$151 $108
$31
$120
2022
$31
$120
$151
2021
$33
$108
$141
$151
$31
$139 $120
$32
$107
2023
$32
$107
$139
2022
$31
$120
$151
Energy Density (Wh/kg)
Energy Density (Wh/kg)
BOTH IMAGES: PLANTE MORAN
Panasonic 18650 battery
Panasonic 18650 battery
High energy density battery
High energy density battery
Automotive Engineering - May 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Automotive Engineering - May 2024
