Automotive Engineering - February 2025 - 23

SUPPLIERS
prepare for a
drop in EV
market share
Tier 1s that kept a foot
in both the electric and ICE
worlds say they're prepared for
the changes ahead.
by Jeremy Korzeniewski
T
he already unsteady transition from fossil fuels to electrification
is about to get bumpier. Just days after it became clear
that Americans would be welcoming a new Republican White
House administration, automotive industry analysts at S&P
Global Mobility predicted that " the support for a speedy transition to
zero-emissions vehicles will be drastically reduced. "
In the third quarter of 2024, automakers sold more than 346,000
battery electric vehicles in the United States, equal to 8.9% of total
automobile sales. That's the highest percentage of market share on
record, leading Cox Automotive to forecast that " a 10% share is well
within reach. "
Those numbers need context. Even as EV sales rise, they are not
keeping up with the lofty expectations that analysts had earlier projected.
In August of this year, J.D. Power revised its EV adoption forecast
downward from 12% to 9% for 2024, pointing to a rise in plug-in
hybrid sales as one reason for the shift. In addition to presenting challenges
to OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers are also preparing for a changing future
landscape.
Peter Tadros, Bosch North America's president for powertrain solutions,
emphasized the electrification shift in an interview with SAE
Media. " Things have changed, " Tadros said. " The most meaningful
change is going to be in the prediction we made two years ago of at
least 50% BEV by 2030. Whether that is because of the political
changes or not can be debated. But at the end of the day, the consumer
spoke and decided that battery electric vehicles are not for
every use case. There will be a change from today where we're at
about 8-10% of BEV take rate. "
Ramiro Gutierrez, president of ZF North America, suggested a
similar outlook. " Even before the new administration takes office,
we've already seen that the adoption of electric vehicles has been
slower than originally anticipated, " Gutierrez told SAE Media.
J.D. Power found that overall interest in EVs, while still strong, is declining.
In May, the automotive data and analytics company reported
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
that 24% of shoppers who responded to a survey said
they are " very likely " to consider purchasing an EV.
That number is down from 26% the prior year.
The EV sales expansion in the U.S. is expected to
shift even further downward in the coming years.
" First and foremost, there will be a reduction in our
expectations for battery electric vehicle share of U.S.
new light-vehicle sales and changes in electrification
mix, " S&P analyst Stephanie Brinley said, " At this
point, we are not ready to define how large the reduction
will be, but we are looking at sharp declines
in BEV sales expectations. "
A further reduction in EV production is an eventuality
ZF is planning for. " The new administration's
agenda seems to be drawing back some of the regulatory
elements of the equation, " Gutierrez said. " I
think our expectation is that the already slow adoption
is going to be even slower and there's going to
be a set of bridge technologies that are going to stay
there longer and are going to be more significant
than originally expected. "
Technologies that can bridge the gap between traditional
ICE and full EVs include everything from mild hybrids
with tiny battery packs to plug-in hybrid powertrains
that can travel a typical day's worth of driving
on a single charge. PHEV and extended-range electric
powertrains help automakers meet stringent emissions
regulations and go a long way toward allaying consumer
fears of insufficient EV range.
" Now we can start talking about hybrids and how
that could be an acceptable solution to our consumers
here in the region, " Tadros said. " Hybrids have about a
12% take rate right now, so higher actually than BEV
February 2025 23
LOOKING AHEAD 2025 FEATURE
ZF opened the Transmission Plant in July
2013 with the production of 8-speed and
9-speed automatic transmissions for the
North American Market.
ZF
Automotive Engineering - February 2025

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