Automotive Engineering - February 2025 - 24

SUPPLIERS
prepare for a
drop in EV
market share
ZF has consistently designed the
new generation of its 8-speed
automatic transmission as a
hybrid modular system. It is
the technical basis for the next
generation of plug-in hybrids
(PHEV) with high purely electric
ranges, as anticipated by ZF in
its EVplus concept.
The electric
drive module
integrates the
next-generation
separate motorgenerator
and
power electronics
in a single system.
ZF's Gutierrez also sees multiple hybrid paths in the future. " A
plug-in hybrid today on the market has a range of, let's say, 50 miles
of electric driving. We're going to see that being further optimized.
So extending that probably closer to 100 miles. " Range-extended
hybrids that use a generator to power a battery pack that's significantly
smaller than what's required for a BEV are another likely avenue
forward, said Guiterrez. " What we're going to see is that electric
vehicles that are maybe in the range of 300 miles are going to be
extended to deliver 700 miles with the help of that generator. "
Cost will remain a major concern for Americans shopping for a new
today. And Bosch, from that standpoint, thinks it is a
technology that eases the consumer into the electrification
age. So this is really where I see the mix and prediction
changing in the near to mid-term. "
Tadros emphasized that emissions regulations aren't
likely to shift as quickly as consumer buying habits. " I
think when we're talking about a shift, you still have to
meet regulations, you still have emissions requirements, "
he said. " So a hybrid solution - whether it's a
plug-in hybrid or extended-range - could satisfy
those regulations that we are still under but get consumer
acceptance. And we see that in the behavior of
the OEMs. They are switching over their platforms to
have more offerings for hybrids. "
24 February 2025
vehicle in the coming years. Bosch's Tadros said. " The number one
concern from the consumer in many studies is the cost of the vehicle. "
Batteries make up the largest percentage of the cost of a BEV,
and because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs, the potential
for cost savings is sizable. " Those technologies need to be affordable.
They need to be cost effective to basically bridge the market situation
from 100% combustion into 100% electrical, " Guiterrez said.
" Lower BEV sales share means that more vehicles will be sold
without the necessary premium that BEVs require, based on cost to
produce and battery cost, " S&P wrote in its post-election forecast.
" Though the new forecast will likely see higher penetration of hybrid
and PHEV solutions - and possibly a higher mix of extended-range
electric vehicle solutions - these are expected to be less costly vehicles
than BEVs and lead to improvements in vehicle affordability. "
The slow burn of EV adoption means that not all suppliers have
been caught completely off guard. " From a Bosch powertrain perspective,
our strategy has not changed, " Tadros said. " We are technology
neutral. Our job is to really work with our customers and understand
what the consumer wants and offer these solutions regardless
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING
FROM TOP: ZF; BOSCH
Automotive Engineering - February 2025

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