Space Technology Special Report - September 2024 - 3

companies to the rise of distributed
manufacturing and service industries
in locations optimized in large part
for economic efficiency. Aviation,
watercraft, and trains follow the
same path: market forces demand
that we minimize costs by localizing
and automating the way we
manufacture and service vehicles.
In the space industry, it's likely
to remain most cost-efficient to
manufacture most satellites here
on Earth in the near term. There are
just too many benefits to teams that
can build, test, and iterate before
shipping for launch. There are outliers,
though, that would strongly benefit
or even require space manufacturing.
Examples include large membrane
optics, gossamer structures, and
systems too large for a single launch.
Servicing in Space
Servicing is where we're likely to
see innovations in the near term. For
instance, imagine if every time your
car ran out of fuel, you left it on the
side of the highway and bought a
new car. The idea is ridiculous, yet it's
what we do in the space industry. It's
even worse, though, because even
a tiny CubeSat can cost $500K. For
satellites that cost $500M+, it would
be more analogous to say that we'd
build a new factory to create a single
car every time we ran out of gas.
So why, if servicing makes so
much sense, aren't there a bunch of
servicing stations already buzzing
around in low-Earth orbit?
To be trite about it: space is hard.
Generations of teams have crunched
the numbers and not gotten past
fundamental blockers like low speed
and intermittent communications,
unsophisticated robotics, and launch
mass limits. How can you assemble a
satellite if you only get to look at choppy
video streams eight minutes at a time?
There are also chicken and egg
problems. Yes, extending spacecraft
life would be great, but who sets
standards? Integrating a refueling port
adds complexity (cost), risk (cost),
and time (cost). And what happens if
the servicing company goes bankrupt
and your investment is wasted?
On the other side of the coin, why
should a servicing industry develop
if no one will pay for services?
Peeking into the Future
Fortunately, momentum is building.
We find a confluence of three factors
that create opportunities which have
never existed together: 1) major
technical blockers are falling, 2)
government regulations are tightening,
and 3) investors are betting big.
Taken together, we believe that it's
reasonable to expect that the first
satellite will be entirely assembled
and launched from a dedicated orbital
platform, that the first commercial
refueling will take place, and that the
return of products manufactured in
space will become commonplace,
all by the end of the decade.
Technical Roadblocks are Falling: Much
has been said about StarShip, Vulcan,
and New Glenn and their new launch
SPACE TECHNOLOGY SPECIAL REPORT
SEPTEMBER 2024 3
Space Technology Special Report - September 2024

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